MoneyAfrica | Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
April 20, 2026.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Inflation Reverses Downward Trend as March Rate Hits 15.38%
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to 15.38% in March 2026, up from 15.06% in February. While this represents a modest 0.32% increase in the year-on-year headline, the month-on-month (m/m) data reveals a much sharper acceleration. On a m/m basis, headline inflation surged to 4.18% in March, more than double the 2.01% recorded in February, signalling that price increases are gaining speed within a very short timeframe.
Food inflation remains a dominant driver of these pressures, rising to 14.31% y/y in March from 12.12% y/y in February. Interestingly, while the annual rate rose, the month-on-month food inflation actually slowed slightly to 4.17% from 4.69% in February. This suggests that while seasonal agricultural supply and harvest patterns provided a minor buffer for food prices, they were not enough to offset the broader surge in the economy.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like agricultural produce and energy, also accelerated significantly to 16.21% y/y, up from 15.88% in February. Most alarmingly, core inflation on a month-on-month basis jumped to 4.03% in March, compared to a mere 0.89% in February, a massive 3.14 percentage point increase that highlights how price pressures have become broad-based beyond just food and fuel.
So what does this mean for you? The rise in inflation indicates that the purchasing power of the Naira is facing renewed pressure. For investors, this suggests that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is unlikely to reduce interest rates in the near future. Instead, the CBN is expected to maintain its tight monetary policy to manage liquidity and stabilize prices. As a result, interest rates are likely to remain high for a longer period.
Key Takeaway: The 11-month disinflation trend has ended. With m/m inflation accelerating to 4.18% and core pressures broadening, the Central Bank will likely remain in a “tightening” mode for much longer than previously anticipated.
FX Update
Naira Gains in Official Market as Reserves Slide to $48.72 Billion
The naira showed resilience in the official NFEM window, strengthening to N1,342.50 per dollar on Friday, April 17. This represents a 1.4% (N19.25) appreciation from the N1,361.75 recorded the previous week. This steady performance suggests that recent matching system reforms are successfully helping the currency find its “fair value.”
The parallel market closed the week at N1,400, reflecting a 0.7% appreciation from the N1,410 recorded the previous week. Despite this gain, the spread between the official and parallel rates widened to N57.50, up from the N32 spread seen at the end of last week.
Gross external reserves fell to $48.72 billion as of April 16, a $130 million decline from the previous week. This continues a steady downward trend from the $50.02 billion peak on March 11, totaling a $1.3 billion drop in five weeks. This consistent depletion suggests that the CBN is actively intervening in the market to defend the Naira’s stability. While official rhetoric emphasizes “willing buyer, willing seller” dynamics, the persistent daily drain on reserves indicates the apex bank is providing significant liquidity support to keep the exchange rate within its current range.
Key Takeaway: The Naira is currently benefiting from heavy-handed support rather than pure market forces. While the currency appreciated in both markets this week, the consistent $1.3 billion drain on reserves since March suggests the CBN is aggressively subsidizing stability to mask underlying demand. With the spread widening to N57.50, the pressure on reserves will likely persist until official supply can truly match market appetite without constant intervention.
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Equities Update
Equities Gain 6.57% as the All-Share Index Hits Record Highs
Nigerian equities had a historic week. The All-Share Index surged 6.57% to close at 217,167.57 points, pushing the year-to-date return to a staggering 39.56%. This is a massive jump from the 30.95% return we saw just last week. Investor confidence is at an all-time high, with total turnover rising 28% from N151.9 billion last week to N195.31 billion this week.
Banking was once again the powerhouse of the exchange, surging 11.85% for the week. This is more than double the 5.10% gain seen the week before. The sector was driven by heavy trading in Sterling Financial Holdings, Access Holdings, and Zenith Bank, which together accounted for 28.92% of the total market volume. Investors are clearly doubling down on banks ahead of the FTSE Russell “Frontier Market” reclassification and the expectation of strong full-year earnings.
Oil & Gas also continued its record-breaking run, gaining 17.59% for the week. This brings its year-to-date return to an incredible 97.95%, making it the best-performing sector by a long shot. Consumer Goods also had a healthy week, gaining 3.39%, while Industrial Goods added 1.26%. Insurance was the only sector that failed to join the party, losing 0.04% for the week.
The big story remains the “structural shift” in the market. As we move closer to the September 2026 reclassification by FTSE Russell, we are seeing “pre-emptive” buying. Local institutional investors and some early bird foreign funds are entering the market now to get ahead of the mandatory inflows expected later in the year. With the market up nearly 40% this year, stocks are becoming expensive and a price correction is likely. Investors should remain observant, as we expect many traders to start taking profits soon to lock in recent gains.
While the FTSE Russell reclassification and upcoming bank dividends could provide further momentum, the market’s current pace is becoming difficult to sustain. Rather than chasing the rally at these levels, a more cautious approach may be beneficial, allowing investors to wait for a potential pullback to find more attractive entry points.
Key Takeaway: A phenomenal week with the ASI gaining over 6%. Banking and Oil & Gas are the primary engines of this growth. With the year-to-date return hitting 39.56%, the Nigerian market is currently one of the best-performing in the world, fueled by index reclassification hopes and strong sector fundamentals.
Fixed Income Update
Treasury Bill Yields Edge Higher in Secondary Market as Inflation Hits 15.38%
The fixed-income market saw a shift in sentiment this week as investors reacted to the latest macro data. In the secondary market for Treasury bills, yields trended upward across the board. In the secondary market, Treasury bill yields trended upward across the board. The 364-day bill (maturing in April 2027) ended the week with a yield of 18.83%, reflecting an increase from the 17.20% yield recorded at the close of the previous week. This rise in yields indicates that investors are repricing risk in response to the latest inflation data, pushing market rates higher as they move away from the levels seen just seven days ago.
Shorter-dated tenors also experienced notable shifts. The 182-day Treasury bill yield rose to 18.52% from 17.15% the previous week, while the 91-day bill increased to 16.49% from 15.90%. This upward trajectory in yields is a direct reflection of the jump in headline inflation to 15.38%. When inflation rises, investors naturally demand higher yields to ensure their real returns aren’t eroded, and we are seeing that adjustment play out in real-time in the secondary market.
In the bond market, activity remained steady with a slight lean toward higher yields at the long end of the curve. The average bond yield for the week sat at approximately 15.70%.
Key Takeaway: Secondary market yields for T-bills are on the rise, led by the 364-day bill at 18.83%. With inflation back on an upward path, the market is pricing in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. For investors, this creates a window to lock in high double-digit yields before the next primary auction.
You can invest in treasury bills for short-term goals — rent, school fees, and more, through Ladda. For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income is not suitable due to inflation and currency risks.
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
Strait of Hormuz Uncertainty Returns as Iran Reverses Reopening
In a volatile turn of events, the relief seen early in the week has been overshadowed by renewed tension. While Iran initially announced that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” for commercial vessels following the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, it has since reimposed restrictions. By Saturday, April 18, the Iranian military announced that control of the waterway had returned to its “previous state,” citing the continued U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports as the reason for the reversal.
The impact of the initial reopening was immediate but appears short-lived. Oil prices, which had been carrying a heavy “war premium,” fell sharply on Friday, April 17, helping to ease global inflation fears for a brief window. Brent crude plummeted over 11% to trade at $87.75, down from $99.39, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped to $83.85 from $94.69. For the global markets, this was seen as a “green light,” driving a broad rally as energy costs, which act like a tax on consumers, began to slide. However, with Iran now threatening to target ships that approach the strait without authorization, the “risk-off” sentiment is quickly returning to the market.
Despite the late-week tension, the markets finished in the green, buoyed by the initial de-escalation and strong performance in the tech sector.
The Nasdaq was the star performer, jumping 6.84% for the week as investors refocused on strong AI earnings and the temporary dip in energy costs. The S&P 500 followed with a 4.54% gain, crossing the historic 7,100 mark, while the Dow Jones added 3.19%. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 jumped 3.49%, maintaining its lead as a top global performer for 2026. European markets also joined the rally, with the CAC 40 and FTSE 100 gaining 2.00% and 0.63% respectively.
Key Takeaway: While the reopening of the Strait provided a massive boost to global indices this week, the gains may be fragile. The reversal of the opening on Saturday suggests that the “black swan” risk hasn’t disappeared. Investors should stay cautious; if the stalemate over the U.S. blockade continues, the “war premium” could quickly return to oil prices, potentially wiping out this week’s market gains.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda — a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!