MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
September 22, 2025.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
The Rate Cut Has Already Begun in the Money Market
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets on September 22–23, 2025, and attention is on whether it will maintain the policy rate at 27.50% or opt for a 25–50bps cut.
Several factors strengthen the case for easing:
- Inflation is slowing: Nigeria’s month-on-month inflation eased further in August 2025, dropping to 0.74% from 1.99% in July. This marks the sharpest slowdown since April, driven largely by softer food and energy prices.The consistent moderation, from 10.7% in January to 0.74% in August, signals that price pressures are steadily cooling. With this trend, the CBN has more room to ease monetary policy by cutting rates without triggering an immediate spike in inflation.
- The naira is steady: Since February, the naira has traded in a relatively narrow band of ₦1,440/$–₦1,600/$, supported by foreign inflows, oil earnings, and targeted CBN interventions.
- Global trends are supportive: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut rates, easing global financial conditions. With US yields lower, emerging markets like Nigeria face less pressure to keep rates elevated, giving the CBN more room to loosen policy.
The easing cycle has already commenced in the money market. Treasury bills yield are already down. The CBN only needs to make it official.
What this means for you:
- Investors should position for an easing cycle, bond yields are likely to fall as rates are cut, offering fixed-income opportunities, while equities could gain from better liquidity and lower borrowing costs.
FX Update
Naira Closes the Week Stronger
The naira gained ground this week in both the official and parallel FX markets.
On Friday, September 19, 2025, it closed at ₦1,488/$1, stronger than last Friday’s ₦1,503.5/$1. This steady improvement is supported by rising foreign investment, a healthier balance of payments, and increased crude oil production.
In the parallel market, the naira also appreciated, moving from about ₦1,526/$1 to ₦1,520/$1 over the same period.
Fun fact: On Monday, the naira even hit a five-month high of ₦1,497.5/$1 in the official market, thanks to better FX supply and softer demand.
Nigeria’s external reserves climbed from $41.6 billion on September 12 to $41.9 billion by September 19, 2025.
What this means for you:
- With the naira strengthening and FX reserves improving, short-term stability looks firmer; investors can cautiously add to naira-denominated assets and selectively accumulate banking, consumer, and export stocks, while still maintaining hedges against dollar risks.
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda. Just visit www.getladda.com to download. You can also earn up to 20% by investing in naira savings.
Equities Update:
NGX’s 0.92% Gain Driven Consumer Goods Drive
The NGX All-Share Index appreciated by 0.92% during the week, bringing the year-to-date return to 37.81%
The industrial Goods sector slipped by 0.92% this week as some investors took profits. Overall, the fundamentals are still solid, so this looks more like a pause or cooling-off period than a sign of weakness.
Consumer Goods led the market with a strong 5.48% gain. Investors are betting on steady demand, stronger earnings, and increased spending as inflation cools. This sector is still seen as a safe choice during uncertain times.
Oil and Gas added 2.79%. Stable oil prices and steady demand supported the sector, though investors are still cautious because of global supply and demand risks.
The Banking sector fell by 2.57% last week, largely reflecting weak earnings performance from the banks that have released results so far. Investor sentiment remained cautious as the reported figures underperformed expectations, dragging sector performance lower
What this means for you:
- Investors should maintain diversification, tilt toward Consumer Goods for stability, stay cautious on Banking until earnings improve, selectively add Oil and Gas exposure, and tread carefully in Industrial Goods amid profit-taking
Fixed Income Update
Mixed Trend in the Money Market
The Nigerian treasury bills (T-bills) market closed last week with mixed movements across maturities in the secondary market.
The 91-day bill edged up slightly from 17.72% to 17.80% on mild investor caution, the 182-day bill eased from 18.77% to 18.50% on renewed demand, while the 364-day bill saw the biggest drop from 20.67% to 19.41% as investors locked into longer-term positions ahead of the CBN’s policy decision.
On September 17, 2025, the CBN conducted its T-bills auction, offering ₦290bn compared to ₦480bn at the previous auction. The breakdown was ₦30bn in 91-day bills at 15%, ₦60bn in 182-day bills at 15.3%, and ₦200bn in 364-day bills at 16.8%. Yields across the instruments are already showing signs of easing.
Bond yields averaged 16.47% last week, slightly lower than 16.48% recorded on September 12.
What this means for you:
- Investors should lock into longer-tenor T-bills while yields remain attractive, diversify across short-, mid-, and long-term maturities to balance liquidity and reinvestment risks, and closely monitor the upcoming MPC decision.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks .
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
The US Fed Cuts Interest Rate to Support the Labour Market
This week, the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) lowered interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) to bring the federal funds rate into a range of 4%–4.25%. This marks the first rate cut in 2025, with the Fed hinting at two more cuts before year-end.
Despite rising inflation risk, the Fed eased rates to prioritise the economy given the recent weakness in job creation and rising unemployment. We believe this position is likely driven by pressure from President Trump.
For long-term investors in US bonds, the higher risk of inflation is worrying, which could potentially lead to investments in other assets like gold.
In the stock market, investor appetite remained strong, and the market reached new highs this week.
In the week ending September 19, 2025, global equity markets posted mixed performances. The S&P 500 gained 0.92%, extending its year-to-date (YTD) return to 13.56%, while the FTSE 100 declined by 0.72%, trimming its YTD gain to 11.58%. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.54%, bringing its YTD performance to 10.60%. Meanwhile, Europe’s CAC 40 edged up slightly by 0.07%, with a YTD gain of 6.22%. On a broader scale, the MSCI World Index advanced 0.97%, lifting its YTD performance to a solid 15.80%.
What this means for you:
- Investors should focus on quality US and global growth stocks with strong cash flows despite volatility, consider gold’s dip as a long-term buying opportunity, and maintain diversification across markets.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!