MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
May 11, 2026.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Nigeria’s Non-Oil Trade Surges 38% in Q1 2026
Nigeria’s drive to diversify its economy is yielding record-breaking results, with the Nigeria Customs Service reporting a massive 38.68% year-on-year increase in export value for the first quarter of 2026. Total exports for the period reached $925.84 million, a significant jump from the $667.59 million recorded during the same period last year. This surge was capped by an extraordinary performance in March, which saw export values skyrocket by over 135% to hit $425.48 million.
The most telling data point, however, is not the dollar value, but the physical movement of goods. The number of export containers processed nearly doubled, rising from 9,722 to 19,014. This 95% increase in container volume suggests that the focus on port digitalisation and improved logistics particularly at specialised commands like Lilypond is finally clearing the bottlenecks that historically frustrated exporters. While the “manufacturing surge” is a key theme, with the export of finished goods nearly tripling, the primary win here is trade facilitation: the ports are simply moving cargo faster and more efficiently.
Despite these logistical improvements, it is important to maintain perspective. While the growth percentages are high, the total value remains below the $1 billion mark for the quarter. This indicates that while the “pipes” of the trade system are being fixed and the hurdles to moving goods are being lowered, the actual scale of Nigeria’s non-oil export economy is still in its early stages and has significant room to grow.
Key Takeaway:
- The real story of this quarter is efficiency over scale. The doubling of container volumes proves that port reforms are making it easier to move goods out of the country, which is the core mission of trade facilitation. However, with total quarterly exports still under $1 billion, the focus must now shift from just “fixing the ports” to massively scaling the actual production of goods to fill those containers.
FX Update
Naira Recovers to ₦1,361 as Increased Liquidity Outpaces Dollar Demand
In the official NAFEM window, the naira appreciated 1% to close at ₦1,361.39/$1 on Friday, May 8—a recovery from last week’s ₦1,374.94/$1. This gain was driven by a surge in market liquidity, with daily turnovers at the interbank market hitting levels not seen since mid-March.
For the second week in a row, the gap between the official and parallel markets remained remarkably thin. The parallel market rate improved to ₦1,380/$1, down from ₦1,385/$1 last Friday. The spread narrowed to less than ₦20, supported by CBN’s interventions.
While the naira strengthened, Nigeria’s gross external reserves saw a minor dip, settling at $48.325 billion as of May 8. This stability, coupled with a slower pace of reserve depletion, suggests that the market is beginning to find its own balance. Rather than the CBN simply “spending” to defend the currency, the appreciation is being driven by improved liquidity from non-government sources, such as oil companies and foreign investors.
By allowing the market to supply itself, the CBN is successfully maintaining the naira’s value while keeping a strong $48.3 billion buffer intact. This shift toward “organic” liquidity is a positive sign, as it means supply is rising fast enough to meet demand without requiring massive, daily interventions from the national reserves.
Key Takeaway:
- The naira’s appreciation to ₦1,360 shows that the market is currently well-supplied, even as the CBN scales back the intensity of its direct interventions.
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Equities Update
Market Momentum Slows as Investors Lock in Profits
After last week’s explosive 7.33% surge, the Nigerian stock market encountered a “reality check” this week, with the All-Share Index (ASI) slowing to a modest 1.03% weekly gain.
While the market finished in the green, the journey was a volatile “rollercoaster.” The week’s early momentum was nearly erased by a massive ₦1.9 trillion mid-week dip, primarily driven by investors aggressively selling off high-value stocks like Dangote Cement and BUA Cement to secure their recent gains.
This shift triggered a significant pivot across various sectors. The Industrial Goods sector, which grew nearly 17% last week, cooled to a 5.11% gain as caution set in over high valuations. Conversely, the Banking sector showed signs of recovery, rising 1.89% as investors began “buying the dip” following the previous week’s dividend-related price drops. The Oil and Gas sector emerged as the week’s biggest laggard, falling 3.27% after a historic run, while Insurance and Consumer Goods became quiet havens, gaining 4.01% and 1.81% respectively as capital rotated into smaller, “under-priced” stocks.
Key Takeaway:
- The drop in weekly performance from 7.33% to 1.03% suggests that the market is entering a consolidation phase. Although the Year-to-Date (YTD) return remains a massive 57.30%, the sharp profit-taking seen this week signals that the period of “easy gains” is slowing down. For investors, the focus is now shifting from broad speculation to a more disciplined approach, specifically targeting stocks with the most resilient Q1 earnings reports.
Fixed Income Update
Treasury Bill Auction: ₦2.4 Trillion in Bids
The Treasury Bill auction on Wednesday, May 6, was marked by an overwhelming ₦2.41 trillion in subscriptions over triple the ₦700 billion offered. While liquidity was higher than in the previous auction, the range of investor bids shifted significantly higher as the market pushed for better yields. To maintain its current monetary policy stance and keep yields from spiking, the CBN chose to allot less than in the prior auction. The 364-day bill stop rate settled at 16.15%, though the “true yield” remains a very attractive 19.26%.
Yields Edge Up on Inflation Fears In the secondary market, yields continued their upward trend despite the influx of cash from unsuccessful auction bidders. The 364-day bill climbed to 18.87%, while the 180-day and 91-day bills rose to 17.55% and 16.42% respectively. Typically, more cash buying bills would push yields down, but persistent concerns over inflation are currently more powerful than the excess liquidity. Investors are holding out for higher returns to protect their purchasing power, keeping interest rates elevated across all tenors.
The bond market remained “bearish” as investors favoured shorter-term bills over long-term debt. While the 10-year benchmark bond yield settled at 15.75%, secondary market trading for other tenors reached as high as 16.54%. To attract more retail investors, the DMO raised the rate for the May 2026 Savings Bond to 14.525%, signalling that the government is gradually yielding to the market’s demand for higher returns.
Key Takeaway:
- Short-term treasury bills remain the preferred choice for investors looking to lock in high, low-risk returns. Even as the government tries to lower borrowing costs, the secondary market is pushing yields back toward the 19% mark, keeping the fixed-income space highly rewarding.
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Star-Spangled Banner Recap
Jobs Strength and Tech Profits Fuel Weekly Gains
The biggest economic surprise came from the US labour market, which added 115,000 jobs in April. This nearly doubled what experts expected, proving that the economy is holding up well despite high energy prices. While the unemployment rate stayed steady at 4.3%, more people are working part-time, which pushed the underemployment rate up to 8.2%. This “cooling but resilient” job market is a relief for the Federal Reserve. It shows the economy is growing without being so “hot” that it forces interest rates even higher.
Technology was the top-performing sector again. Massive profits from companies like Alphabet and Micron showed that investments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) are paying off. The Nasdaq jumped 4.51% this week as a result.
Oil prices jumped over 7% this week due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East. While this helped energy stocks, it hurt the wider market by keeping shipping and production costs high.
High energy costs continue to affect Europe. The FTSE 100 (UK) fell 1.40% because British factories are paying much more for fuel and power. However, France’s CAC 40 managed to rise 1.71% after China’s credit outlook was upgraded, boosting French exports.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei skyrocketed 4.67% after the government stepped in to support its currency, helping the index reach a 24.58% gain for the year. The MSCI World Index rose 2.37% for the week, pushing its total gain for the year to 7.02%.
Key Takeaway:
- The US and Japan are breaking records because AI and tech are growing faster than inflation. However, the high cost of oil remains a “hidden tax” on the rest of the world, especially in Europe. While the strong US job market is a good sign for global growth, the economy won’t be fully safe until oil prices settle down.
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We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!