MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
June 15, 2026.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Macro Update
Nigeria’s Oil Output Hits a 15-Month High in May 2026
Nigeria pumped 1.53 million barrels per day of crude oil in May 2026, up from 1.49 million barrels in April, a 41,000 barrel per day increase month-on-month. This is the highest crude output level since July 2025 and the first time this year Nigeria has exceeded its OPEC production quota of 1.5 million barrels per day.
Including condensates, total oil output reached 1.70 million barrels per day, reinforcing Nigeria’s position as Africa’s largest oil producer. Bonny Terminal led production at 293,870 barrels per day, followed by Forcados at 289,900 and Qua Iboe at 173,360. Upstream operations remained stable with no major pipeline breaches or facility shutdowns during the month.
Higher oil output is good news for Nigeria’s exports and revenue outlook. More barrels pumped means more dollars earned. With oil prices above $80 per barrel, sustaining this oil output level will provide a boost to the economy through higher growth in the oil sector, increased government revenues and exchange rate stability.
Key Takeaway:
- Nigeria is pumping more oil than its OPEC quota for the first time this year, which provides a boost to the economy given high oil prices.
FX Update
Naira Holds Steady as Reserves Hit 17-Year High
The naira traded within a tight band in the official market last week, closing at ₦1,363.82/$ on June 11, a marginal weakening of ₦1.61 from ₦1,362.21/$ two weeks ago. In the parallel market, the naira weakened slightly to ₦1,400/$ from ₦1,398/$ last week, a depreciation of ₦2.
The parallel market premium widened marginally to ₦36.18 (2.65%), up from ₦35.79 (2.63%) last week but still within a stable range.
External reserves climbed to $50.427 billion as of June 10, a 17-year high up from $50.037 billion last week, supported by sustained oil revenues, diaspora remittances, and foreign portfolio inflows. At this level, the CBN has greater capacity to defend the naira, absorb external shocks, and signal to foreign investors that Nigeria can meet its dollar obligations. The CBN also released the fourth edition of its foreign exchange manual this week, aimed at improving transparency among authorised dealers.
Key Takeaway:
- Reserves at a 17-year high means Nigeria is better positioned than it has been in nearly two decades to withstand external pressure, a positive signal for confidence in the naira and Nigerian assets broadly.
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda. Visit www.getladda.com to download. You can earn up to 8% for dollar savings and 20% by investing in naira savings.
Equities Update
NGX Recovers as Buyers Return Across Most Sectors
The NGX All-Share Index gained 0.88% this week, recovering from last week’s 2.80% decline. Year-to-date return improved to 57.27% from 56.40% last week. Trading activity was lighter than usual due to the Democracy Day holiday on Friday, June 12.
Most sectors recovered this week. Banking gained 0.95% after dropping 3.42% last week, now up 51.68% for the year. Insurance rose 1.63% after falling 1.88% last week, up 5.89% for the year. Oil and Gas added 0.50% after last week’s 5.18% drop, now up 113.40% for the year. Industrial Goods and Consumer Goods remained under pressure, falling 1.00% and 0.54% respectively.
Looking ahead, the market outlook is cautiously bullish. May inflation data from the NBS will set the tone cooling inflation raises hopes of future rate cuts, which is good for equities. Dangote Cement’s dividend qualification date on June 17 will likely attract buying interest early in the week as investors position to earn the ₦45 dividend. The CBN’s new regulations targeting Financial Holding Companies will also keep Tier-1 banking stocks like Access Holdings, FBN Holdings, and GTCO in focus as investors weigh the impact on their holdings.
Key Takeaway:
- Last week’s broad selloff proved to be a brief pause. Banking, Insurance, and Oil and Gas bounced back last week while Industrial Goods and Consumer Goods lagged.
Fixed Income Update
CBN Allots ₦2.23 Trillion via OMO as Bond Yields Rise
The CBN held OMO auctions last week, attracting ₦2.36 trillion in subscriptions and allotting ₦2.23 trillion. Demand was heaviest on the 138-day paper, which drew ₦1.84 trillion in bids alone, reflecting investors’ preference for locking in current yields.
In the secondary market, OMO bills are currently yielding between 18.47% on the January 2027 paper and 21.88% on bills maturing as early as June 23, reflecting investor expectations that rates will ease over the next six months.
T-bill yields moved in mixed directions. The 90-day yield fell slightly to 16.53% from 16.62% last week, and the 364-day dipped to 19.27% from 19.52%. The 180-day yield rose to 17.60% from 17.42%.
The average benchmark bond yield climbed 39 basis points to 16.41% from 16.02% last week, as investors demanded higher returns amid continued sell pressure across the bond market.
The OMO also closed the June 2026 Savings Bond subscription last week, raising ₦4.68 billion, a 15% increase from the prior month. Retail investors favoured the 3-year bond at 14.777%, which accounted for over 81% of total allotments.
Key Takeaway:
- The CBN aggressively drained liquidity through OMO last week while bond yields rose across the curve. Investors are positioning for higher rates—selling lower-yield holdings and concentrating bids on longer-tenor instruments to lock in returns before the next policy decision.
You can invest in treasury bills for short-term goals—rent, school fees, and more through Ladda. Visit www.getladda.com to download the app and start earning today. For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income is not suitable due to inflation and currency risks.
Star-Spangle Banner
Markets Recover but Inflation and Rate Fears Cast a Shadow
US inflation rose to 4.25% year-on-year in May, a three-year high driven almost entirely by an energy price surge of 23.54% over the past 12 months. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, remained more stable at 2.85%, confirming the shock is concentrated in energy commodities rather than broad-based demand. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% at its June 17 meeting, but traders are now pricing in rate hikes later in the year, with Goldman Sachs pushing out any rate cut expectations to mid-to-late 2027.
The ECB moved first. On June 11, it raised all three benchmark rates by 25 basis points. This was its first hike since September 2023 after Eurozone inflation jumped to 3.2% in May, breaking above the ECB’s 2% target for the first time in nearly three years. The ECB simultaneously raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 3.0% and cut its growth forecast to just 0.8%, signalling that tighter policy may slow an already fragile economy. Both economies face the same problem as inflation is driven by Middle East energy disruptions, meaning rate hikes slow growth without fixing the underlying cause..
Despite rising inflation and the ECB’s first rate hike in nearly three years, markets recovered across the US, Europe, and Asia. The rebound was supported by stable core inflation at 2.85% reassuring investors that the price shock remains concentrated in energy rather than spreading through the broader economy and the SpaceX IPO lifting sentiment in tech.
In the US, the S&P 500 gained 0.65% (now up 8.56% YTD), recovering from last week’s 2.59% decline. The Nasdaq rose 0.70% (up 11.39% YTD) after last week’s 4.68% plunge. The Dow Jones added 0.66% (up 6.53% YTD). The MSCI World Index gained 0.67% (up 7.72% YTD). The SpaceX IPO was a standout event, opening at $150 per share on the Nasdaq and closing up nearly 20% on its first day.
Europe joined the recovery: the FTSE 100 gained 1.00% (up 5.44% YTD) and France’s CAC 40 rose 1.85% (up 2.47% YTD), both reversing last week’s losses. Japan’s Nikkei led global gains, surging 3.12% for the week, now up 31.15% YTD.
Key Takeaway:
- Markets recovered but the macro backdrop is getting harder. Inflation is rising, the ECB has started hiking, and the Fed is under pressure to follow. The energy shock driving prices higher cannot be solved by raising rates which is exactly what makes this environment difficult for investors.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!