MoneyAfrica| Investment Research

Weekly Market Commentary

August 5, 2026.

Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter! 

As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.

Macro Update

CBN’s Monetary Policy Delivers Results as Money Supply Growth Cools to 13.65% 

Nigeria’s broad money supply (M3) grew 13.65% year-on-year in June 2026, slowing from 15.56% in June 2025 and a peak of 56.31% in June 2024. The total stock of money in the financial system reached a record ₦133.25 trillion, up from ₦117.25 trillion a year earlier. The slowdown in growth, not the total volume reflects the CBN’s aggressive monetary tightening working as intended.

Three tools are driving the deceleration. The benchmark interest rate stands at 26.5%, up from 18.5% in May 2023. The Cash Reserve Ratio for commercial banks remains at 45%, keeping a large portion of deposits sterile and out of circulation. Repeated multi-trillion naira OMO liquidity mop-ups have further drained loanable funds from the banking system.

The CBN’s priority is clear price and exchange rate stability. With inflation still in the mid double digits at 15.91% in June, and global energy prices rising again, credit will remain constrained until inflation falls to levels the CBN considers sustainable. Economic growth will be prioritised only when that condition is met. 

Key Takeaway:

• Money supply growth has slowed sharply from its 2024 peak as a direct result of the CBN’s tightening tools working as designed. With inflation still elevated and inflationary pressures building from energy costs, there is no basis for easing yet. The CBN will keep conditions tight until the inflation picture changes convincingly. 

FX Update
Naira Holds Steady as Reserves Dip Slightly from July Peak 

The naira weakened marginally in the official market last week, closing at ₦1,368.22/$, a depreciation of ₦6.14 from ₦1,362.08/$ the previous week. In the parallel market, the naira weakened further to ₦1,425/$ from ₦1,410/$ the previous week, a depreciation of ₦15.

The parallel market premium widened to ₦56.78 (4.15%), up from ₦47.92 (3.52%) the previous week. The gap between the two markets continues to widen, signalling that dollar demand in the informal market is outpacing official supply.

External reserves dipped marginally to $51.922 billion as of July 30, down from $52.029 billion the previous week, a decline of approximately $107 million from the July peak. Despite the slight pullback, reserves remain at their highest level since 2009 and well above the three-month import cover benchmark.

Key Takeaway:

• The official rate held broadly stable last week, but the parallel market premium widening to 4.15% from 3.52% the previous week is a trend worth watching. Four consecutive weeks of widening premium suggests that unmet dollar demand in the informal market is building. 

Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda. Visit www.getladda.com to download. You can earn up to 8% for dollar savings and 20% by investing in naira savings.

Equities Update

NGX Slips 0.84% as Investors Lock In July Gains 

The NGX All-Share Index declined 0.84% last week, closing at 245,283.68 points and pulling the year-to-date return down to 57.62% from 58.96% the previous week. Market capitalisation fell to ₦158.33 trillion. The decline was driven by investors locking in gains after buying stocks aggressively throughout July in anticipation of strong H1 earnings results. 

Consumer Goods fell 2.29% for the week, now up 10.82% for the year. Banking slipped 0.69%, now up 66.74% for the year. Oil and Gas dipped 0.24%, now up 96.32% for the year. Industrial Goods edged down 0.20%, now up 85.42% for the year. Insurance was the only gainer, rising 1.72% for the week and moving into positive territory for the year at 0.90%.

Looking ahead, dividend payments are expected to flow through the market this month following declarations from Presco (₦10.00 per share), NGX Group (₦1.30 per share), and United Capital (₦0.30 per share). Dividend qualification dates typically attract buying interest as investors position to earn the payout which could support prices in the short term before the usual post-qualification price adjustment. Tier-1 bank results from Access Holdings, GTCO, and Zenith Bank are also anticipated and will be a key test of whether the banking sector’s strong year-to-date performance is backed by equally strong earnings.

Key Takeaway:

• The market dipped despite strong H1 earnings because investors had already bought stocks in anticipation of good results during July. When the results confirmed what the market expected, there was no new reason to keep buying so prices eased as investors locked in their gains. Dividend qualification dates and tier-1 bank earnings will be the two key drivers of market direction this week. 

Fixed Income update 

CBN Cuts 364-Day Stop Rate as Investor Demand Hits ₦3.62 Trillion 

The CBN held its final T-bill auction of July on July 29, offering ₦700 billion across three tenors. Total subscriptions reached ₦3.62 trillion more than five times the offer with demand overwhelmingly concentrated in the 364-day paper, which alone attracted ₦3.38 trillion in bids. The CBN allotted ₦1.25 trillion while rejecting ₦2.4 trillion in excess bids. The massive demand allowed the CBN to cut the 364-day stop rate by 0.31 percentage points to 17.35% from 17.66% at the previous July 15 auction, with a true yield of approximately 20.99%. The 91-day and 182-day stop rates held steady.

The CBN also held an OMO auction on July 28, offering ₦600 billion across three tenors. Total subscriptions hit ₦3.5 trillion, with stop rates clearing at 20% across tenors reflecting the CBN’s intent to mop up excess liquidity from maturing bills while keeping yields attractive for foreign portfolio investors.

In the secondary market, T-bill yields rose across short and mid tenors last week. The 90-day yield climbed to 17.15% from 15.96% the previous week, and the 180-day rose to 18.27% from 18.08%. The 364-day yield eased to 20.26% from 20.54%. OMO bills yielded between 20.56% on the January 2027 paper and 21.39% on the September 2026 paper. The average benchmark bond yield eased to 16.82% from 17.39% the previous week, a notable decline of 0.57 percentage points, reflecting sustained buying in longer-dated government bonds.

Key Takeaway

• Investor demand for Nigerian fixed income remains exceptionally strong. The CBN was able to cut the 364-day stop rate this week precisely because demand was so high. The significant drop in average bond yields confirms that buying pressure in the bond market is building, even as T-bill yields edged up slightly at the short end.

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Star-Spangled Banner 

Markets Rebound on Strong Tech Earnings Despite Fed Dissent and GDP Slowdown 

The US Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, but three committee members voted for an immediate hike reflecting the difficulty of the Fed’s position. On one hand, US Q2 GDP slowed to 1.5%, below the 2.0% forecast and down from 2.1% in Q1, as lower government spending and weaker exports dragged on growth. On the other hand, consumer spending and business investment remained strong at 3.9%, and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure eased to 3.4% from 4.4% in Q1 meaning the economy is slowing but not collapsing, and inflation is cooling but not fast enough to declare victory. That tension is exactly why three officials wanted to hike while the majority chose to wait.

Adding to the complexity, the Trump administration imposed fresh import duties of 10% to 12.5% on major trading partners including the EU, which threatens to push import costs higher and complicate the inflation picture further. Oil prices also swung between $90 and $96/barrel after an attack on US forces in Jordan, before easing on reports of peace talks, another reminder that energy prices remain a live risk to inflation on both sides of the Atlantic. Chair Warsh gave no forward guidance, leaving September 16 as the next key date for clarity on the Fed’s direction.

Despite the difficult macro backdrop, markets closed higher driven entirely by technology earnings. Microsoft surged 15.5% after forecasting strong cloud revenues through 2027, and Amazon rallied on solid cloud growth, reassuring investors that AI-driven corporate spending remains intact despite slowing GDP, new tariffs, and volatile oil prices. That reassurance was enough to override the macro concerns and push markets broadly higher.

The Nasdaq gained 1.59% for the week, now returning 9.17% year-to-date. The S&P 500 rose 1.05%, now at 9.41% year-to-date, and the Dow added 1.04%, now at 9.20% year-to-date. The MSCI World Index gained 1.09%, now at 9.42% year-to-date. Europe also closed higher; the FTSE 100 gained 1.23%, now at 9.43% year-to-date, and France’s CAC 40 rose 1.64%, now at 4.42% year-to-date. Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.88%, now at 27.86% year-to-date, as Apple’s 7.3% decline on component shortage warnings weighed on Asian tech sentiment.

Key Takeaway

Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.

• Tech earnings drove markets higher last week despite slowing GDP, Fed dissents, new tariffs, and oil volatility all pointing in the wrong direction. The fact that markets still rose shows how much weight investors are placing on AI and cloud growth right now. That confidence will be tested in September when the Fed meets again.

We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!