MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
March 9, 2026.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
IMF Warns of Rising Energy Costs and Trade Risks
Today, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that growing tensions in the Middle East could push global energy prices higher and disrupt international trade. The region is central to global oil supply, and any instability often creates uncertainty in energy markets.
A key risk comes from the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping route where about 20% of the world’s oil passes. Rising tensions here can increase shipping risks and insurance costs, which usually pushes oil prices higher.
For Nigeria, the impact is mixed. As an oil-producing country, higher crude prices can boost export earnings, foreign-exchange inflows, and government revenue, supporting the naira. At the same time, Nigeria imports significant fuel and goods, meaning rising energy costs could also increase domestic fuel prices, transportation costs, and inflation.
For investors, the situation presents both opportunities and risks. Higher oil prices can improve earnings for energy companies and strengthen government finances, which may support the broader market. However, businesses that rely heavily on transportation or imported inputs could see rising costs, affecting profitability.
Key Takeaway:
Rising global energy prices could strengthen Nigeria’s reserves and create opportunities in the oil and gas sector, but investors should watch inflation and rising costs that could impact other businesses.
FX Update
Naira Falls as Dollar Demand Rises Despite CBN Support
The naira weakened against the US dollar during the week as demand for foreign currency remained strong. At the official market, the naira closed around ₦1,393 per dollar, compared with about ₦1,363 per dollar the previous week. During the week, the exchange rate briefly dropped to about ₦1,404 per dollar, showing the continued pressure on the currency.
In the parallel market, the naira also declined, trading at around ₦1,405 per dollar by the end of the week, down from about ₦1,370 per dollar last Friday. The similar movement in both markets suggests that demand for dollars remains high across the economy.
To help ease the pressure, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) sold about $300 million to banks during the week. However, demand for dollars from businesses and importers remained strong, which kept the naira under pressure.
Nigeria’s external reserves recorded a slight decline during the week, falling from about $49.96 billion on February 27, 2026, to $49.93 billion on March 5, 2026. The reserves are used by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to support the foreign exchange market when demand for dollars rises.
Meanwhile, global oil prices increased amid rising tensions in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, which raised concerns over possible supply disruptions. Brent crude traded in the high $80s per barrel during the week. Higher oil prices could support Nigeria’s foreign-exchange earnings, as crude oil exports remain the country’s main source of dollar inflows.
Key Takeaway:
- The naira’s decline shows that demand for dollars remains strong. Businesses and investors should keep exchange rate movements in mind when planning payments, imports, or foreign-currency investments.
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda. Just visit www.getladda.com to download. You can also earn up to 8% for dollars saving and 20% by investing in naira savings.
Equities Update
NGX Climbs as Oil and Gas Stocks Lift the Market
The Nigerian stock market closed the week on a positive note as sustained buying interest pushed prices higher across several major sectors. The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) rose by 2.15% week-on-week to close at 196,968.15 points, up from 192,826.78 points recorded the previous week. As a result, the total value of listed companies on the exchange increased to ₦126.44 trillion, reflecting renewed investor demand for selected large-cap stocks.
Despite the market’s strong performance, overall trading activity slowed slightly compared to the previous week. Investors traded 3.69 billion shares valued at ₦177.69 billion in 370,980 deals, lower than the 4.20 billion shares worth ₦206.32 billion traded in 375,597 deals the week before. This indicates that although fewer shares changed hands, demand for certain stocks was strong enough to push the broader market higher.
The oil and gas sector recorded the strongest performance during the week, rising by 9.43%. The rally was driven by significant gains in energy companies including Eterna Plc, which surged by 28.72%, Aradel Holdings which gained 19.96%, and Oando Plc which advanced by 18.90%. Strong buying interest in these stocks played a major role in lifting the broader market.
The industrial goods sector also supported the market’s upward movement, rising by 3.89%. Large-cap cement producers were key contributors, with Lafarge Africa gaining 5.00%, Dangote Cement rising 4.62%, and BUA Cement increasing by 2.74%. Because these companies have significant weight in the market index, their gains helped strengthen the overall market performance.
The banking sector recorded more modest growth of 0.24%, but it remained one of the most actively traded segments of the market. Gains in Stanbic IBTC Holdings (+9.02%), Zenith Bank (+2.20%), GTCO (+1.71%), and Wema Bank (+0.74%) helped keep investor interest in banking stocks steady during the week.
On the downside, the consumer goods sector recorded a slight decline of 0.09%, reflecting mild selling pressure in some stocks within the segment. The insurance sector was the weakest performer, falling by 1.88%, as a number of insurance stocks closed lower during the week.
Overall, the Nigerian stock market maintained positive momentum as strong gains in oil and gas stocks and continued support from industrial heavyweights pushed the market higher, keeping the NGX All-Share Index close to the 200,000-point mark.
Key Takeaway:
- The Nigerian stock market moved higher as investors bought into selected stocks, especially in the oil and gas sector. While a few sectors showed some weakness, overall sentiment remained positive as the market continued to hold near record levels.
Fixed Income Update
Treasury Bill Yields Edge Higher as One-Year Rate Increases
Nigeria’s treasury bill rates moved slightly higher during the week following the latest auction by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Investor demand remained strong, with total bids reaching ₦2.34 trillion, more than double the ₦1.05 trillion offered by the CBN. Most of the interest was concentrated in the one-year bill, which alone attracted about ₦2.13 trillion in bids, showing that many investors are looking to lock in longer-term returns.
At the auction, rates moved differently across the three maturities. The 91‑day treasury bill rate increased slightly to 15.95% from 15.80%, while the 182‑day bill remained unchanged at 16.65%. The biggest change was seen in the 364‑day treasury bill, which rose to 16.73% from 15.90%, indicating that investors demanded a higher return to keep their money locked in for one year.
In the secondary market for treasury bills, yields went up across the board. The 91-day yield rose to 16.3% from 16.2% last week; the 182-day rose to 17.6% from 17.1%; and the 364-day bill rose sharply to 19.7% from 18.4%.
In the bond market, the average yield on FGN bonds went up to 15.50% from 15.44%. People bought mostly shorter-dated bonds, and activity was cautious on the longer ones.
Overall, the market continues to show strong appetite for government securities, especially longer-dated bills, as investors look for stable returns in a lower inflation environment.
Key Takeaway:
- Treasury bill rates moved slightly higher, especially on the one-year bill. For investors, this means government securities continue to offer relatively strong and stable returns.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks.
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
Global Markets Slide as Oil Surges Amid Middle East Tensions
Last week, global stock markets struggled as rising tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices sharply higher. Traders grew worried about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for about a third of the world’s seaborne oil. Fears over supply interruptions from major oil‑producing countries helped send Brent crude close to $90 per barrel, its highest level in almost two years. The jump in energy prices raised inflation expectations and made investors cautious across many markets.
In the United States, major indexes fell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.6% to 47,954, the S&P 500 declined 0.6% to 6,830, and the Nasdaq Composite edged down 0.3% to 22,749. Energy stocks gained as higher oil prices boosted profits for producers, while consumer staples, industrials, and materials finished the week lower due to rising cost concerns.
European markets also moved lower. The FTSE 100 in London, DAX in Germany, and CAC 40 in France all declined by 1.5%, with travel, banking, and industrial stocks under pressure. Defensive sectors like utilities and health care were relatively more resilient.
In Asia, performance was mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 managed a 0.03% gain, while other regional indexes were weighed down by risk‑off sentiment as investors reacted to rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainties.
Amid the volatility, investors sought safe‑haven assets. The US dollar strengthened, gold prices edged higher, and demand for government bonds increased, reflecting a preference for lower‑risk assets.
What it means for investors:
- Energy stocks may continue to benefit while oil prices remain elevated.
- Sectors exposed to higher energy costs, such as airlines and heavy manufacturers, may face tighter profit margins.
- Safe‑haven assets like gold, government bonds, and the US dollar are likely to stay attractive during periods of uncertainty.
- Investors with exposure to emerging markets should watch currency and inflation risks tied to rising energy prices.
Key Takeaway:
- Rising oil prices and Middle East tensions created a cautious environment for global markets last week. Energy sectors gained ground, but most other stocks weakened as investors priced in higher costs and uncertainty. Keeping an eye on oil market developments and geopolitical news will be important for market direction in the coming weeks.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!