MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
September 15, 2025.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Nigeria Records ₦7.46 Trillion Trade Surplus in Q2 2025
Nigeria’s trade balance strengthened in the second quarter of 2025, recording a ₦7.46 trillion surplus compared to ₦5.17 trillion in the first quarter. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), exports rose 16.6% quarter-on-quarter to ₦22.75 trillion, while imports increased by a slower pace of 8.6% to ₦15.28 trillion. Oil exports remained dominant, accounting for 79% of total exports, supported by higher crude prices and improved production. Non-oil exports also showed resilience, with agriculture rising 15% year-on-year and manufactured goods climbing 12%, reflecting gradual progress in diversification. On the import side, refined petroleum products, machinery, and vehicles accounted for the bulk of inbound goods, with overall imports still outpaced by exports.
Nigeria’s widening trade surplus provides a cushion for the broader economy. Higher export earnings improve foreign exchange liquidity, giving the central bank more room to defend the naira and build reserves, which in turn supports exchange rate stability and reduces imported inflation pressures. For investors, the trend is encouraging: export-oriented companies stand to gain from stronger external demand, while improved reserves lower sovereign risk and may enhance appetite for Nigerian bonds. A more stable currency also reduces conversion risks for equity and fixed-income investors, while signalling resilience that could draw fresh foreign inflows into the market.
Key Takeaways:
- Exports grew 16.6% QoQ, outpacing imports at 8.6%, with oil still dominant but non-oil exports improving.
- Rising export earnings and slower import growth strengthen FX liquidity and external reserves.
- For investors, stronger reserves and a more stable naira improve confidence in Nigerian equities and fixed-income markets.
FX Update
Naira Strengthens Across Official and Parallel Markets
Between Friday, September 5, 2025, and Friday, September 12, 2025, the naira recorded gains across both the official and parallel markets. In the official market, it strengthened from around ₦1,529.19/$ on September 5 to about ₦1,501.49/$ by September 12, reflecting a 1.8% weekly appreciation. In the parallel market, the naira also firmed, moving from roughly ₦1,535/$ to about ₦1,526/$ within the same period.
On the reserves side, Nigeria’s external buffers remain robust. As of September 12, foreign reserves stood at $41.625 billion, up from $41.30 billion a week earlier. This marks an increase of about $4.1 billion in one month—the strongest level since late 2021—driven by higher oil production and stronger capital inflows. Rising reserves provide the central bank with greater firepower to defend the naira and smooth volatility in the FX market.
Key Takeaway:
- The naira continues to gain strength, supported by rising external reserves. Investors should note that while this trend is positive, keeping part of savings or portfolio exposure, especially long-term, in dollars remains a smart hedge against potential volatility.
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda. Just visit www.getladda.com to download. You can also earn up to 20% by investing in naira savings.
Equities Update
NGX Posts 1.13% Weekly Gain as Investor Activity Strengthens
The Nigerian stock market advanced again last week, with the All-Share Index (ASI) gaining 1.13% to close at 140,545.69 points. Year-to-date, the market remains strong at +36.55%. The value of listed companies rose by ₦989 billion to settle at ₦88.92 trillion.
The Financial Services sector dominated turnover with 2.28 billion shares worth ₦38.81 billion (71.6% of volume), followed by Consumer Goods (198.39 million shares, ₦12.84 billion) and Oil and Gas (186.74 million shares, ₦35.17 billion). The top three equities—FCMB Group, Access Holdings, and Universal Insurance—accounted for 1.25 billion shares worth ₦14.28 billion, representing 39.2% of total volume.
Across sectors, performance was broadly positive. Banking stocks rose 1.68% (YtD: +41.13%), driven by strong demand in tier-one names. Industrial Goods gained 1.13% (YtD: +37.91%), while Consumer Goods advanced 0.98% (YtD: +83.85%). Oil & Gas climbed 2.38% (YtD: –10.79%), lifted by renewed interest in Seplat. Insurance led with a 2.45% gain (YtD: +82.49%), reinforcing its position as one of the year’s strongest performers.
Key Takeaway:
- The market remains buoyant with strong sectoral performance and rising turnover, though momentum is increasingly selective, with banking, insurance, and consumer names driving gains while oil and gas still struggles year-to-date.
Fixed Income Update
Treasury Bill Yields Moderate After Last Week’s Spike
Treasury bill rates eased in the latest trading week compared to September 4, when investors had demanded much higher returns. On September 4, the 91-day bill cleared at 17.19%, the 182-day at 18.94%, and the 364-day spiked to 26.89% as tight liquidity drove yields sharply higher. By September 12, conditions had steadied: the 91-day bill ticked up slightly to 17.72%, the 184-day settled lower at 18.77%, and the 364-day eased sharply to 20.67%.
The contrast shows that while short-term rates remain elevated, the pressure on the one-year tenor has cooled significantly, reflecting improved confidence in near-term liquidity.
Bond yields also trended lower, averaging 16.48% on September 12 compared to 16.87% the week before. This slight decline reflects improved sentiment in the debt market despite heavy government borrowing.
Overall, investors are still demanding elevated returns, but the sharp jump seen in early September has cooled, suggesting the market is stabilising.
Key Takeaway:
- Treasury bill yields pulled back from last week’s spike, especially on the one-year paper, easing government borrowing costs. Investors continue to enjoy attractive fixed-income opportunities, though rates remain high by historical standards.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
Weak Job Creation and Rising Inflation Create Fed Dilemma
The Federal Reserve faces a tricky balancing act: the US economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously reported over the past year, pointing to labour market weakness that supports the case for rate cuts. At the same time, inflation edged up to 2.9% in August from 2.7% in July, showing that prices for essentials like food, rent, and transport are still rising. While inflation is not at crisis levels, it hasn’t cooled enough for the Fed to cut rates without risk. For now, the Fed is weighing whether slowing job creation poses a bigger threat to growth than sticky inflation.
Global markets, however, leaned on the view that weak job data could push the Fed closer to easing. The Nasdaq (+2.0%) and Japan’s Nikkei (+4.1%) led the rally, while the S&P 500 gained 1.6% in its best week in over a month. Europe also advanced, with France’s CAC 40 up 1.9% on strong earnings, while the UK’s FTSE 100 added 0.8%, supported by energy and financial stocks. Despite the strong week, profit-taking on Friday showed investors remain cautious.
Key Takeaways
- Stay diversified as inflation uncertainty keeps risks elevated.
- Cash and money market funds remain attractive for short-term returns.
- Cooling inflation fuelled a global equity rally but profit-taking signals caution.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!