MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
September 1, 2025.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Nigeria Exceeds OPEC Production Target for the Second Month in a Row, Reaches 1.5 Million bpd in July 2025
Nigeria’s oil sector recorded a modest but notable recovery in July, with crude oil production (excluding condensates) inching up to 1.51 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 1.50mb/d in June. When condensates are included, total output reached 1.71mb/d from 1.70mb/d in June, marking the second consecutive monthly increase, the first such back-to-back gain in 2025.
The uptick was largely driven by improved output flows from the Bonny terminal, following earlier disruptions. This recovery, though marginal, is significant in the context of Nigeria’s persistent production challenges, including pipeline vandalism, theft, and underinvestment in upstream assets. Sustaining output growth will be key to shoring up government revenues. In July, average crude oil production stood at 100.5% of Nigeria’s OPEC quota (1.5 mbpd).
On the external front, the rebound in production has started to feed into Nigeria’s external buffers. Official FX reserves rose by US$2.2 billion in July, bringing the balance to US$39.4 billion, their strongest level so far this year. This reserve accretion was supported not only by higher oil export receipts but also by improved inflows from non-oil sources, reflecting the gradual impact of recent FX and monetary policy tightening.
Key Takeaways:
- The trend offers short-term currency stability and liquidity relief, but lasting investor confidence depends on tackling oil sector risks and ensuring consistent policies.
FX Update
Naira Strengthens Across Official and Parallel Markets
Between August 22 and August 29, 2025, the Nigerian naira’s performance was mixed.
The naira strengthened slightly, closing at ₦1,531.44 per US dollar compared to ₦1,535.03 per US dollar the previous Friday, a 0.23% weekly gain. In the parallel market, it appreciated by 0.32% from ₦1,545 to ₦1,540 per dollar.
Nigeria’s foreign reserves increased to $41.27 billion on August 7, 2025, compared to $41.0 billion the previous week. This climb strengthens the CBN’s capacity to support the naira when under pressure.
Key Takeaway:
- The naira is a bit stronger and reserves are rising, giving the CBN some room to support the currency. However, the gains are still fragile, if oil prices fall or foreign inflows slow, pressure could return.
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Equities Update:
NGX Records Weekly Decline: Banking and Consumer Goods Lead Market Losses
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) All-Share Index (ASI) ended the week on a negative note, posting a 0.50% decline. As a result, the year-to-date return moderated to 36.31% as of August 29, 2025, compared to 37.00% recorded in the previous week.
Industrial Goods: The sector led this rally with a 0.36% loss. The sector’s decline was largely attributed to profit-taking in cement stocks, which dominate the index. Over the past few weeks, cement companies had recorded significant price appreciation, driven by optimism around government infrastructure spending and expectations of stronger earnings.
Consumer Goods: Also saw a significant decline of about 0.89%. The sector decline, reflects selloffs in stocks like dangsugar, honey flour and cadbury
Oil and Gas: The sector recorded a marginal loss of 0.18%, which could be due to investor caution amid lingering regulatory uncertainties.
Banking: The banking sector dropped by 1.21%, mainly due to investors selling off shares to take profits after the recent rally. The biggest losses came from banks like Ecobank, Access Bank, Zenith Bank, FCMB, and Wema Bank.
Key Takeaway:
- This week’s market decline shows that the market is taking a pause after its strong rally earlier in the year. Investors are taking profits and staying cautious because of high interest rates and regulatory risks. Many are waiting for stronger earnings results and clearer government policies before making big new investments.
Fixed Income Update
Upswing in Nigeria’s Treasury Bill Market as Yields Rise
The week just concluded August 29th Nigeria’s treasury bills market saw upward movements across maturities in the secondary market reflecting a combination of weaker demand dynamics and tighter liquidity conditions.
The 91-day bill yield edged up slightly from 17.26% to 18.17% as investors sought higher compensation for holding short-term instruments.
The 182-day yield rose from 18.55% to 19.45% as demand for mid-tenor paper softened.
The most significant shift came from the 364-day bill, where yields surged from 19.17% to 20.67%. This reflected a combination of tight system liquidity, the government’s increased borrowing needs, and investors’ demand for higher returns to compensate for inflationary pressures.
Bond yields climbed to an average of 16.94% from 16.50%.
Key Takeaway:
- The sharp increase in long-term treasury bill yields creates an opportunity for investors who are willing to take on more risk and invest for a longer period. However, the current environment of tight liquidity,and borrowing pressures means yields could remain volatile in the near term.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks .
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
S&P 500, Dow Close at Record Highs
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones hit record highs on Thursday, boosted by optimism in AI stocks. Nvidia’s earnings showed a strong 56% jump in revenue, confirming that demand for AI infrastructure remains solid, even though its outlook excluded potential China sales due to trade tensions. Nvidia’s shares slipped slightly (-0.8%) as results fell short of very high expectations, but other tech giants like Alphabet (+2%), Amazon (+1%), and Broadcom (+3%) gained.
The results reinforced that AI remains the key driver of market growth, keeping Wall Street’s rally alive.
The MSCI Index fell in the week ending August 29, 2025, mainly because major markets outside the US performed poorly.
- The S&P 500 increased by 0.04% (YTD: +10.08%).
- the FTSE 100 decreased by 1.31% (YTD: +11.23%).
- the Nikkei 225 decreased by 0.69% (YTD: +8.68%).
- and the CAC 40 decreased by 3.01% (YTD: +4.19%).
- The MSCI World Index decreased by 0.36%, pushing its YTD to 12.67%.
Key Takeaway:
- US markets remain strong, with tech driving much of the growth. Investors should continue holding quality US stocks, especially in the tech sector, while maintaining a balanced portfolio across other global markets to manage risk.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!