MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
March 02, 2026.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Nigeria’s Economy Grows 3.87% in 2025 While CBN Cuts Rates to 26.5%
Last week, the NBS published the GDP report of Q4 2025, showing that the Nigerian economy grew by 3.89% in 2025 from 3.38% in 2024. This is the fastest pace of growth since 2022.
The improvement in the economy was supported by stronger growth in the agriculture, financial services, ICT and oil and gas sectors.
While a 3.89% growth is insufficient for the Nigerian consumer to recover from the devastating economic crisis of the past three years, they have benefitted from a much lower inflation rate and exchange rate stability of the last two quarters.
To further support the economy, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) cut the benchmark interest rate to 26.5% from 27.0% last week. While a 0.5% cut might seem small, this move sends a clear signal that the CBN is trying to make borrowing cheaper and support growth while keeping inflation and liquidity under control.
A lower interest rate environment will support stronger growth in credit-sensitive sectors such as manufacturing, trade and real estate which account for 40% of GDP.
Investor Takeaway:
The CBN cut interest rates by 0.5% to support growth without losing control of inflation. For investors, that means:
- Reassessing fixed-income holdings to make the most of existing yields.
- Considering stocks of companies that benefit from cheaper borrowing.
FX Update
Naira Ends Week Lower as CBN Moves to Narrow Market Gap
The Nigerian naira weakened across both official and parallel markets this week, even as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) worked to manage foreign‑exchange liquidity and bring the rates closer together.
In the official market, the naira closed at around ₦1,363 per US dollar on Friday, down from ₦1,346/$ last week, marking a 1.25% decline as demand for dollars remained high.
In the parallel market, the naira fell by about ₦30 to close at ₦1,370/$, compared with ₦1,340/$ last Friday. Despite this, the gap between official and parallel rates narrowed to around ₦7, down from about ₦11 earlier in the week, showing some alignment between the two markets.
Earlier in the month, the naira had briefly reached a two‑year high near ₦1,336/$, supported by improved liquidity. The CBN’s actions, including dollar sales to manage supply, have helped smooth sharp fluctuations, while Nigeria’s external reserves remain strong at around $50.45 billion, giving some support to the currency.
Key Takeaway:
- The naira weakened to about ₦1,363/$ in the official market and ₦1,370/$ in the parallel market last week, but the narrowing of the gap between both markets and strong reserves continue to support overall stability.
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda. Just visit www.getladda.com to download. You can also earn up to 8% for dollars saving and 20% by investing in naira savings.
Equities Update
NGX Slips Below 194,000 as Profit-Taking Weighs on Market
The Nigerian stock market closed lower on February 26 as investors sold off some major stocks. The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) fell by 0.41% to close at 193,567.80 points. This decline reduced the total market value of listed companies to about ₦124.2 trillion.
Trading activity moderated, with about 868 million shares valued at ₦31.5 billion exchanged. Even with the decline, large-cap names like Zenith Bank Plc and MTN Nigeria Communications Plc dominated value traded, showing that institutional interest remains strong.
Banking Sector:
The banking space was mixed. While Zenith Bank saw strong transactions, Jaiz Bank Plc recorded notable losses, contributing to the overall market dip.
Consumer Goods:
The consumer goods segment came under pressure, with Cadbury Nigeria Plc closing lower. Selling in this space added weight to the index.
Industrial Sector:
Industrial-related stocks such as John Holt Plc and Enamelware Plc recorded declines, reflecting mild weakness in the segment.
Oil and Gas:
Japaul Gold & Ventures Plc stood out on the gainers’ chart, showing buying interest within the broader energy-related space.
Insurance & Financial Services:
Deap Capital Management & Trust Plc posted gains, providing some support within the financial services segment.
Other notable gainers included FTN Cocoa Processors Plc, RT Briscoe Plc, and Ellah Lakes Plc, though their advances were not enough to offset losses in larger and more influential stocks.
Key Takeaway:
- The NGX slipped below 194,000 points as investors took profits, even though strong trading activity continued in large stocks like Zenith Bank and MTN Nigeria.
Fixed Income Update
Investors Flock to T-Bills as Short-Term Yields Shift
Investors were very active in the money market last week. There was strong participation in Treasury bills and CBN OMO bills as the Central Bank continued to manage liquidity in the system.
Yields on Treasury bills moved differently, and the direction of the movement shows where investors showed interest.
The 91-day bill increased slightly to 16.39% from 16.18%. When yields rise, it means demand is weaker. So interest at the very short end was soft.
The 182-day bill fell to 17.08% from 17.36%. When yields fall, it means demand is strong. Investors showed clear interest in this mid-tenor bill.
The 364-day bill rose sharply to 21.64% from 18.35%. A big rise like this shows weak demand. Investors were not willing to buy at previous levels, so yields had to increase.
In the bond market, the average yield on benchmark FGN bonds dropped to 15.44% from 15.92%. This shows stronger buying interest in selected mid- and longer-dated bonds. Bonds are medium- to long-term instruments, so activity was focused on shorter-dated maturities on the bond curve compared to longer ones.
The secondary market was active, but investors were careful. They bought where pricing made sense and stayed away where it did not.
Key Takeaway:
- Demand was strongest in the 182-day Treasury bill and in some bond maturities, where yields fell. Demand was weaker in the 91-day and especially the 364-day bills, where yields rose. Investors are being selective and are responding to liquidity conditions and pricing, not just chasing high numbers.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
Global Markets Struggle as Inflation, Tech Worries, and Trade Concerns Weigh
Last week, global stock markets were mixed, reflecting uncertainty and caution among investors. In the United States, markets started the week with optimism after strong earnings from tech companies, especially those linked to AI, but that early cheer faded. The inflation report showed that price pressures remain firm and came in slightly above expectations. This reinforced concerns that inflation is not slowing fast enough and reduced confidence in near-term interest rate cuts, shifting expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next moves.
Growth and technology stocks, which are sensitive to interest rates, were hit the hardest.
Investors also reacted to renewed trade policy uncertainty after the US administration announced new import tariffs following the Supreme Court’s limitation of broad tariff powers. These trade moves raised concerns about rising costs for companies and the potential for slower economic growth.
As a result, the major US indexes finished the week lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.31% to close around 48,978 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.44% to about 6,879, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.95% to approximately 22,668.
In Europe, markets were more resilient. The FTSE 100 in London rose 2.09%, supported by strong banks, mining, and defensive stocks. Germany’s DAX gained 0.09%, showing a nearly flat week, while France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.77% as investors focused on sectors that benefit from stability rather than high-risk exposure.
Asian markets also showed strength amid the turbulence. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 3.56%, driven by optimism in exporters and cyclical sectors, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.82%, reflecting selective buying and regional investor confidence.
Safe-haven assets reacted to the uncertainty as well. Gold prices edged higher, and the US dollar weakened against major currencies as investors sought protection and rebalanced portfolios in response to both inflation and trade concerns.
Key Takeaway:
- Global markets ended the week unevenly, with US stocks falling, Europe holding steady, and Asia gaining ground. Inflation worries, tech stock pressure, and trade policy uncertainty drove the cautious approach.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!