MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
February 16, 2026.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Foreign Inflows Surge to $3 Billion as High Yields Lure Investors
According to FMDQ data, Nigeria’s foreign exchange (FX) market received a massive liquidity boost in January 2026, with total FX inflows rising by 7% month-on-month to $3 billion.
The growth in FX inflows was mainly driven by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs), whose investments rose by 151% to reach $1.6 billion. These offshore investors channelled 98% of their capital ($1.5 billion) into fixed-income securities like Treasury Bills, while equities attracted a modest $38.7 million.
Like other emerging markets, the Nigeria fixed income market is currently very attractive due to a weaker dollar, lower interest rates by global central banks, and a high interest rate differential. Foreign investors earn 20%+ on money market investments in Nigeria, which is higher than the inflation rate of 15.2%, and provides them with a real return of 4.2%. The real return in the US is much lower at 1.1%.
This influx of “hot money” has been the primary architect of the naira’s recent stability and the rapid build-up of external reserves to $49 billion. However, FX from domestic sources—such as export proceeds—dipped by 15%.
While portfolio investment in Nigeria provides short-term support for the economy, it is also a huge source of risk. The $20bn+ foreign investors have invested in Nigeria could exit at a faster rate if oil exports suffer, trade wars worsen or global interest rates rise.
Key Takeaway:
- High interest rates on money market securities continue to attract foreign investors in Nigeria. Without exports diversification, foreign investor flows only provide short term stability.
FX Update
Naira Hits 2026 High as Reserves Surge to $49 Billion
The Nigerian naira reached its strongest level of the year last week, significantly appreciating in the official market (NFEM) by 0.84% to close at ₦1,355.41 on February 13, compared to ₦1,366.94 the previous week. The parallel market followed suit with a 1.41% gain, strengthening to ₦1,420.48 from ₦1,440.81.
This recovery is backed by a massive surge in Nigeria’s external reserves, which jumped by 3.1% this week to hit $49 billion—a significant 8-year high. CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso confirmed this growth was driven by the bank’s shift to a “net buyer” status following record foreign capital attracted by high interest rates.
To address the gap between the official and parallel market rates, the CBN announced weekly sales of $150,000 per BDC operator. Following this policy shift, the market has seen a notable convergence, The difference between the official and parallel rates last week was ₦73.87. The absolute difference has narrowed to ₦65.07 this week.
Key Takeaway:
- The jump to $49 billion in reserves gives the CBN the “muscle” to keep the naira stable and crush currency speculation.
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda. Just visit www.getladda.com to download. You can also earn up to 8% for dollars saving and 20% by investing in naira savings.
Equities Update
NGX Explosive Growth Continues as ASI Surges Past 182,000
The Nigerian stock market delivered a strong performance this week (February 9–13), with the All-Share Index (ASI) shattering its previous record to close at 182,313.08 points. Investors gained a staggering ₦6.79 trillion in value as market capitalisation climbed to ₦117.027 trillion. The market gained 6.16% this week, driven by a consistent five-day bullish run, which peaked on Friday with a 2.06% gain.
The market’s broad-based rally was headlined by the Oil and Gas sector with a 11.40% weekly surge and a staggering 40.56% return for the year, largely fuelled by Seplat Energy repeatedly hitting 10% daily gain limits. The Industrial Goods sector also saw robust growth, rising 7.09% as demand for heavyweights like BUA Cement intensified, while the Banking sector appreciated by 5.84% due to high activity in Zenith and Access Bank. Consumer Goods gained 2.95% for the week, boosted by Nestle Nigeria’s 10% surge on Friday, while the Insurance sector managed to shake off last week’s dip with a marginal recovery of 0.65%.
The market is currently vibrant because of a high-liquidity environment fuelled by $3 billion in FX inflows in January and spectacular 2025 full-year earnings. Investors are aggressively “front-running” dividend announcements, particularly in the Oil and Banking sectors. The momentum is so strong that even mid-cap stocks are seeing double-digit gains, as the market acts as a primary destination for both local institutional “smart money” and returning foreign portfolio investors.
Key Takeaway:
- The surge to 182,000 points proves that the market has shifted from “recovery” to “full-scale expansion,” delivering a massive 17.16% return in just six weeks. The rally is backed by strong corporate profits and improved FX liquidity, making the NGX the top-performing asset class in Nigeria for early 2026.
Fixed Income Update
Secondary Market Yields Edge Higher as Investors Eye ₦1.15 Trillion Auction
The Nigerian secondary debt market saw a slight reversal in the downward trend of interest rates this week (February 9–13), as yields edged higher across most short-term tenors.
Yields in the Treasury Bills market saw mixed movements this week, with shorter tenors experiencing the most significant upward adjustments. The 91-day bill witnessed the sharpest increase, rising by 100 bps (1.00%) to settle at 16.74%, up from 15.74% last week. The 182-day bill followed a similar trend, increasing by 68 bps (0.68%) to finish at 17.42% (previously 16.74%). 364-day bill showed the most stability, creeping up by a marginal 15 bps (0.15%) to close at 18.98% compared to 18.83% last week
This slight uptick in bill rates suggests that while liquidity remains high, some investors are holding back cash and repositioning themselves for the upcoming Primary Market Auction (PMA) scheduled for Wednesday, February 18, where the CBN plans to offer a massive ₦1.15 trillion.
In contrast, benchmark bond yields continued their steady cooling, easing by 0.87% to settle at 15.99%.
Key Takeaway:
- The upward adjustment in treasury bill rates highlights a strategic pause in the market as investors prepare for the massive ₦1.15 trillion auction.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
Global Markets Pivot as US Inflation Cools to 2.5%
Global market sentiment for the week ending February 13, 2026, was primarily driven by a cooling US inflation report. Annual inflation fell to 2.4% in January, down from 2.7% in December 2025. This represents a drop of 0.3% and marks the lowest annual inflation rate since May 2025. While this cooling inflation rekindled hopes for future Federal Reserve rate cuts, it wasn’t enough to prevent a broad weekly decline across major US and European indexes.
The S&P 500 dipped 0.98% for the week, while the Dow Jones fell 1.02%, retreating slightly after its historic push past the 50,000 mark as investors rotated out of high-growth technology stocks amid intensifying fears regarding AI disruption and the massive infrastructure costs tied to its long-term profitability. The tech-heavy Nasdaq remained the biggest laggard, dropping 1.55% as the “AI scare trade” continued to weigh on megacap names like Microsoft and Nvidia, leaving the index down 2.44% for the year.
In sharp contrast, Asian markets decoupled from the West, led by a spectacular performance in Japan. The Nikkei 225 surged 4.96% to reach a robust 13.12% year-to-date return, driven by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide election victory. European performance was mixed; the FTSE 100 gained 0.74% to reach mid-week record highs on a rotation into defensive stocks, while the CAC 40 edged down 0.14%. Globally, the MSCI World Index slipped 0.99% for the week, though it maintains a positive annual gain of 1.81%.
Key Takeaway:
- The global market is currently navigating a “Great Rotation,” where money is moving out of overextended US tech stocks and into high-growth Asian markets and defensive European value sectors. While the cooling US inflation to 2.5% provides a safety net for the economy, US software companies continue to face weak investor confidence due to competition from AI alternatives.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!