MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
February 09, 2026.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Nigeria’s Business Activity Hits 14-Month Growth Streak
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) latest data shows that the country’s business activity maintained its upward climb in January 2026, with the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reaching 55.7 points. This marks a significant 14-month streak of continuous growth. The industrial sector was the primary engine of this performance, hitting 56.0 points, while services and agriculture followed closely at 54.5 and 54.2 respectively. Out of 36 subsectors, 31 reported expansion, showing that the recovery is reaching almost every corner of the economy. A notable highlight from the report was the sharp improvement in supply chain efficiency, with the delivery time index rising to 60.4, meaning businesses are getting their materials faster than in previous months.
This 14-month expansion signals a shift from “crisis management” to a “durable recovery,” forecasting a positive first-quarter GDP and boosting international investor confidence. For those in the market, this growth suggests higher corporate earnings and potentially better dividends, especially in the industrial sector where improved supply chains are helping to protect profit margins. While consumers still face high costs for raw materials, the pace of price increases is finally slowing down, offering better job security and more predictable household planning as the era of massive price spikes begins to cool.
KEY TAKEAWAY
- The January PMI of 55.7 confirms that Nigeria’s economy has carried its 2025 momentum into the new year. This sustained growth bridges the gap between policy reforms and real-world results, creating a much more vibrant and predictable environment for everyone.
FX Update
Naira Holds Its Own as Nigeria’s External Reserve Reach an 8-Year High
The Nigerian Naira showed impressive resilience this week, strengthening across both major market windows. In the official market (NFEM), the Naira gained 1.41%, closing at ₦1,366.94 on February 6 compared to ₦1,386.55 on January 30. The parallel market mirrored this positive trend with a 0.84% appreciation, finishing the week at ₦1,440.81 from ₦1,453 previously. This recovery is underpinned by a significant jump in Nigeria’s national external reserves, which reached $46.912 billion—the highest level in eight years.
The external reserves have climbed to a massive $46.912 billion, the highest level the country has seen in eight years. The primary driver of this recent surge is the influx of foreign capital attracted by Nigeria’s high interest rates. Furthermore, while the country still imports crude for local refineries, the shift toward domestic processing is beginning to structurally reduce the massive, immediate dollar outflows previously required for finished petrol imports, helping to stabilize the overall demand for foreign exchange.
KEY TAKEAWAY
- The main message here is that Nigeria is building a much stronger financial cushion. Having nearly $47 billion in the bank gives the government the “muscle” it needs to keep the currency stable and proves to the world that the economy is becoming more reliable. While there is still a small gap between official and parallel prices, the overall trend shows that the country is moving toward a more predictable and secure financial future.
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda. Just visit www.getladda.com to download. You can also earn up to 8% for dollars saving and 20% by investing in naira savings.
Equities Update
Nigeria’s Stock Market Hits Historic High
The Nigerian stock market had a week for the history books, with the All-Share Index breaking past the 170,000-point mark for the first time ever. Overall, the market grew by 3.84% this week, bringing its total gain for the year so far to 10.36%.
The Oil and Gas sector was the standout performer, soaring 10.88% as crude oil production hit a high of 1.68 mbpd (highest quarterly output since 2022). This growth, supported by improved security and reduced pipeline vandalism, saw stocks like Seplat Energy hit the 10% daily gain limit. While Industrial Goods (+4.36%) and Banking (+3.57%) saw heavy interest, a minor 2.33% dip in Insurance didn’t slow the broader market, which is now up 10.36% for the year. This rally is primarily driven by the “January Earnings Blitz,” as record profits from heavyweights like BUA Foods and Presco combined with the ongoing banking recapitalization trigger intense demand for blue-chip stocks as a hedge against inflation.
KEY TAKEAWAY The jump past 171,000 points proves that real profit growth and increased oil output are the engines of this rally, not just speculation. With the broad market already delivering a 10.36% return in just over a month, investors are feeling very optimistic about 2026.
Fixed Income Update
₦4.6 Trillion Demand Forces Interest Rates Down
The Nigerian debt market saw massive activity on February 4 as investors offered the Central Bank ₦4.59 trillion—nearly four times the amount requested. This huge rush of money was almost entirely for the 1-year bills, which alone saw ₦4.40 trillion in bids. Because so many people wanted these bills, the government was able to lower the interest rate it pays on the 1-year debt from 18.36% in January to 16.99%. Meanwhile, the rates for shorter 3-month and 6-month bills stayed steady at 15.84% and 16.65%. This shift shows that investors are rushing to lock in current returns before interest rates fall even further.
Moving into the secondary market by February 5, we saw this trend continue as interest rates across all tenors cooled down compared to the end of January. The 91-day rate dropped from 17.36% to 15.74%, while the 182-day rate eased to 17.82%. Even the popular 1-year rate dipped from 19.28% to 18.83%, and benchmark bond yields followed suit, settling at 16.13%. This shift is happening because inflation has slowed down to 15.15%, meaning these government bills are now offering a “real” profit for the first time in a long while.
KEY TAKEAWAY
- The main lesson here is that the government is in a very strong position because there is so much cash in the system looking for a home. For investors, the market is currently vibrant because your money is finally growing faster than prices are rising. Since interest rates are starting to fall, the best strategy right now is to lock in these returns quickly before they drop even further in the coming months.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
Wall Street Makes History as Dow Hits 50,000 Milestone
Global markets closed a rollercoaster week on February 6, 2026, highlighted by the Dow Jones Industrial Average shattering the 50,000 mark for the first time. The week began with a sharp “tech rout” as investors questioned the high costs of AI for giants like Microsoft and Amazon, leading to a significant weekly drop for the Nasdaq.
Sentiment was further shaken by a private report showing over 102,000 U.S. job cuts in January—the highest since 2009. Because a government shutdown delayed official labor data, markets initially panicked over this “information vacuum.”
However, by Friday, a “bad news is good news” narrative took hold; investors bet that a cooling labor market and lower inflation would force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner. This sparked a massive Friday rebound, lifting the Dow by 1,101 points and boosting international markets.
The week’s performance was led by the Dow Jones, which climbed 2.22% to reach its historic milestone, bringing its year-to-date return to 3.98%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was the standout performer, surging 3.04% for the week and pushing its annual gain to a robust 7.78%.
European markets also enjoyed a positive run, with the FTSE 100 rising 1.43% and the CAC 40 gaining 1.13%. The broader MSCI World Index saw a modest lift of 0.66%, placing it 1.65% higher for the year.
In contrast, the tech-heavy Nasdaq struggled, falling 2.16% as investors rotated out of high-growth AI stocks, leaving it down 1.22% for 2026. The S&P 500 also felt the weight of the tech sell-off, dipping 0.39% over the five days, though it remains marginally positive for the year at 0.96%.
KEY TAKEAWAY
- The Dow hitting 50,000 is a major psychological victory that signals the global recovery is still alive despite a cooling job market. For investors, the takeaway is that the market is shifting its focus from “AI hype” to “Interest Rate reality.” As inflation drops and the labor market softens, the expectation of cheaper borrowing costs is keeping the environment vibrant, even as tech stocks face more scrutiny.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!