MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
January 12, 2026.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Oil Price Falls to $60 Per Barrel Below 2026 Budget Benchmark
Oil prices fell last week after the United States announced it would import up to $2 billion in Venezuelan crude, adding more supply to the global market. This caused Brent crude to drop 0.38% to $60.56 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to fall 1.17% to $56.46 per barrel. Earlier, the US said Venezuela would hand over 30 to 50 million barrels of oil, increasing oil availability and putting downward pressure on prices worldwide.
For Nigeria, this matters because the 2026 federal budget was built on a conservative oil price of $64.85 per barrel, with an assumed production of 1.84 million barrels per day and an exchange rate of ₦1,400 to $1. Prices below this benchmark could make it harder for the government to fund its planned ₦58.18 trillion budget, affecting projects, infrastructure, and social programs.
In short, lower oil prices can tighten government revenue, while higher prices help meet budget expectations. For investors, this highlights the importance of considering solid, diversified, naira-based investments rather than reacting to short-term global oil price swings.
Key Takeaway:
- With oil prices below Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, relying on oil-dependent assets is risky for investors. Nigerian investors should focus on diversified, long-term investments in sectors like banking, consumer goods, fintech, and fixed-income instruments for more stable returns.
FX Update
Naira Gains Strength, Reserves Rise to $45.6 Billion
Last week, the Nigerian naira became slightly stronger against the US dollar. In the official market, the exchange rate improved to ₦1,423 per dollar, up from ₦1,431 the previous week, meaning the naira gained value. However, in the parallel market, the dollar traded slightly higher at ₦1,480 compared to ₦1,475 the week before, showing that demand for dollars is still strong outside official channels.
Nigeria’s foreign reserves also increased, rising to $45.6 billion from $45.5 billion as of December 31, 2025. This growth was supported by higher oil revenues, increased foreign investor inflows, government sovereign bond sales, and remittances sent home by Nigerians living abroad, all of which helped strengthen the country’s external financial position.
Key Takeaway:
- The naira showed signs of stability as it strengthened in the official market and Nigeria’s foreign reserves increased, supported by oil earnings, foreign inflows, and remittances. For everyday investors, this suggests avoiding panic dollar buying, focusing on solid naira-based investments, and making long-term, diversified decisions rather than reacting to short-term currency movements..
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda. Just visit www.getladda.com to download. You can also earn up to 20% by investing in naira savings.
Equities Update
Nigerian Stock Market Records Another Strong Week as 2026 Momentum Builds
The Nigerian stock market had a strong week, with the NGX All-Share Index rising by 3.71%, much better than last week. The gains were driven mainly by insurance, industrial goods, oil and gas, and banking stocks.
Banking stocks rose by 3.07%, supported by strong performances from Access, Wema Bank, and GTCO, as investors grew more confident that most banks have met the new recapitalisation requirements.
The consumer goods sector dipped to 2.76%, despite solid performances from PZ, Honeywell Plc, and Dangote Sugar.
The industrial goods sector grew by 4.74%, while insurance was the top performer, rising by 6.89% on renewed investor optimism.
The oil and gas sector gained 4.70%, led by stocks such as Seplat Energy.
Overall, the market has delivered a second consecutive week of gains in 2026, reinforcing growing investor confidence across key sectors. This sustained momentum suggests that investors are positioning early for opportunities as the year progresses.
Key Takeaway:
- Investors should stay invested and gradually increase exposure to strong sectors like banking, insurance, industrial goods, and oil and gas, focusing on well-managed companies. A balanced, long-term approach, combining quality stocks with some fixed-income assets, remains the smartest strategy as market confidence builds in 2026.
Fixed Income Update
Mixed Trends in Treasury Bill Yields
Nigeria raised about ₦1.14 trillion at its first treasury bills auction of 2026, showing strong investor interest even as interest rates increased. The one-year (364-day) treasury bill attracted the most demand, with investors subscribing ₦1.38 trillion and the government allotting ₦987.78 billion at a high return of 18.47%. This shows that many investors are willing to lock in higher, safer returns for longer periods despite rising rates.
In the second week of January 2026, Nigeria’s treasury bill rates showed mixed movements.
Short-term treasury bills had mixed results, the 91-day bill increased slightly from 16.46% to 16.59% while the 182-day bill dipped slightly from 17.67% to 17.65%. However, the 364-day (1-year) treasury bill became more attractive, with its rate rising from 19.27% to 19.67%.
Key Takeaway:
- Investors should consider locking in one-year treasury bills for high, low-risk returns as strong demand shows many are securing these yields for a full year. Shorter-term bills (91- and 182-day) still offer solid returns while keeping funds accessible, so a mix of both can balance income and flexibility.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
The Unemployment Rate Fell to 4.4% from 4.5%
The US added 50,000 new jobs in December, fewer than the expected 73,000. However, the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from 4.5%, better than economists predicted. This means more people are finding work, even if new hiring slowed.
The news may give the Federal Reserve confidence to keep interest rates steady at their upcoming January meeting.
Other highlights:
- Investors expecting a Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs will have to wait, as no ruling came Friday.
- Shares of Oklo and Vistra jumped after being selected by Meta (Facebook) for its nuclear power plans.
Market performance around the world rose for the week ended. The FTSE 100 in the UK rose by 1.74%, France’s CAC 40 rose 1.39%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 went up by 3.18%. The MSCI World Index rose by 1.49% for this week.
Key Takeaway:
- The US economy remains stable, with lower unemployment supporting the likelihood that interest rates will stay steady, which is positive for global equities. Investors should stay diversified across regions and focus on quality stocks and long-term growth themes like energy and infrastructure.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!