MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
December 15, 2025.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Nigeria’s Trade Surplus Falls in Q3 2025
Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of ₦6.691 trillion in Q3 2025, lower than ₦7.46 trillion in the previous quarter, as imports grew faster than exports.
Exports remained strong but did not grow enough to keep pace with imports. Crude oil continued to lead, generating about ₦12.8 trillion, showing that oil is still Nigeria’s main export earner.
Imports, however, rose to ₦16.12 trillion, up about 5.5% from both the previous quarter and last year. Higher imports of fuel, food items like wheat and sugar, and other essentials pushed import bills higher, narrowing the surplus.
Looking beyond oil, non-oil exports stood at around ₦10 trillion, with only ₦2.99 trillion coming from other non-oil products. This shows that while diversification is improving, Nigeria still depends heavily on crude oil exports.
Implication and Outlook:
Nigeria is still exporting more than it imports, but the shrinking surplus shows growing pressure from rising imports. Without stronger growth in non-oil exports and local production, the trade surplus could continue to narrow in coming quarters.
Key Takeaway:
- Nigeria still records a trade surplus, but it is shrinking as import bills rise faster than export earnings. Stronger non-oil exports and increased local production are needed to keep the trade balance stable.
FX Update
Nigeria’s FX Reserves Hit Seven-Year High at $46.7 Billion
Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $46.7 billion in mid-November 2025, the highest in seven years, up nearly $5 billion since September. The increase came from higher oil earnings, more investor confidence, and portfolio inflows, including a recent $2.35 billion Eurobond sale. The stronger reserves help the CBN manage FX pressure and support the naira.
Between December 5 and 12, 2025, the naira weakened slightly. In the official market, it moved from ₦1,450/$ to ₦1,459/$, and in the parallel market, it went from about ₦1,485/$ to ₦1,500/$. During the week, the CBN sold $150 million in two parts to help the market, but demand for dollars stayed high.
The pressure on the naira is partly due to seasonal demand, as people and businesses buy more dollars at year-end for imports, travel, and other payments.
Key Takeaway:
- Even with high reserves and CBN support, the naira is under pressure from seasonal dollar demand. But the stronger reserves give the CBN room to keep supporting the currency and prevent big drops.
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda. Just visit www.getladda.com to download. You can also earn up to 20% by investing in naira savings.
Equities Update
Consumer and Financial Stocks Push Market Higher
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) All-Share Index (ASI) rose by 1.63% this week, gaining 2,395 points to close at 149,433.26 from 147,038.12. Market capitalisation increased by ₦1.54 trillion to ₦95.26 trillion. The gains were driven mainly by consumer goods and insurance stocks, while some sectors were quiet.
Banking: The banking sector was mostly flat, slipping slightly by 0.12%. Stocks like Access Holdings, Zenith Bank, and UBA recorded small price movements as investors took profits after earlier gains. Banks did not play a major role in the market’s rise.
Insurance: Insurance stocks stood out, with the sector rising by about 3.4%. Strong buying in selected names helped lift overall market sentiment.
Consumer Goods: The consumer goods sector performed well, gaining 2.64%. Nestlé, Dangote Sugar, and PZ Cussons led the gains as investors focused on companies with steadier earnings.
Oil and Gas: The oil and gas sector edged lower by about 0.13%. Seplat recorded the highest value of trades, but the sector provided little support to the broader market.
Industrial Goods: Industrial goods posted modest gains of around 1.2%, supported by Lafarge and Dangote Cement, though profit-taking limited stronger upside.
Key Takeaway:
- The market moved higher on the back of consumer goods and insurance stocks. Banking stocks were flat, while oil and gas stocks dipped slightly, showing that investors are still selective and cautious.
Fixed Income Update
FG’s Domestic Borrowing Hits Trillions in Q4 2025
In Q4 2025, the Federal Government borrowed ₦4.72 trillion through treasury bills, up sharply from Q3, showing increased reliance on short-term borrowing to fund its needs. The DMO also reopened ₦460 billion in FGN bonds with 2030 and 2032 maturities, indicating continued use of long-term instruments to support the budget and manage liquidity.
During the week, treasury bill auction yields remained high, reflecting cautious investor demand and tight liquidity. These auction levels fed into the secondary market, where yields moved slightly across maturities rather than sharply.
In the secondary market, the 91-day bill eased to 15.79% from 15.83%, while the 182-day bill rose to 17.34% from 16.86%, showing higher return expectations as tenor lengthened. The 364-day bill dipped slightly to 20.41% from 20.78% but remained elevated overall. Bond yields averaged 16.53%.
Key Takeaway:
- Short-term borrowing remains the government’s main funding tool, while investors continue to demand strong returns, especially for longer-term lending.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
Fed Rate Cut Amid Mixed Economic Signals
The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% this week, the third cut in 2025, as the economy slows down. Job growth has weakened and unemployment is rising, which made investors expect the Fed to ease policy even though inflation is still a concern. The goal is to help the economy keep growing and make borrowing cheaper.
US stocks were mostly steady. The S&P 500 rose slightly by 0.04%, but technology and AI stocks fell after weaker forecasts from companies like Oracle and Nvidia.
Markets around the world were mixed. The FTSE 100 in the UK fell 0.14%, France’s CAC 40 dropped 0.27%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 went down 0.69%. In China, markets fell about 2% after regulators tried to control speculation and suggested lowering mutual fund fees. Emerging markets did well, rising this week—thanks to the Fed’s rate cut and stronger local growth, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 20.7% so far this year.
The MSCI World Index fell 0.36% for the week, but it is still up 12.67% year-to-date.
Key Takeaway:
- The Fed’s rate cut supports markets, but not all sectors or regions gain equally. With developed markets mixed and emerging markets leading, investors should spread their investments across countries and sectors.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!