MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
July 14, 2025.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
CBN to Review Interest Rate Policy at July MPC Meeting
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has scheduled its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting for July 21–22, 2025, where it will decide whether to maintain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR.
The MPR is an interest rate that affects how banks do business with the CBN, whether borrowing or deposits. Then the MPR affects the rate a banking customer can earn on their savings account, the rate they pay on their loans and the return they can earn on other fixed income investments such as treasury bills, commercial papers and bonds.
The meeting comes at a time when Nigeria is seeing moderating inflation, a more stable exchange rate in the foreign exchange market, and signs of improvement in overall economic conditions.
While these positive factors should lead to lower interest rates, rising domestic and global risks are a concern. The CBN is likely monitoring President Trump’s trade policy,, the impact of insecurity on food supply, and ongoing climate events like flooding. These issues could raise inflation in the months ahead.
Key Takeaway:
For investors, high-yield opportunities in fixed-income markets such as treasury bills and FGN bonds may remain attractive if the current policy stance continues. For everyday Nigerians, it suggests that borrowing costs will likely stay high, but naira savings and investments could still offer decent returns, especially if inflation continues to ease.
FX Update
Naira Strengthens Slightly in Parallel Market
The naira appreciated in the parallel market this week, closing at ₦1,550/$, up from ₦1,570/$ the previous week, a ₦20 gain. The improvement signals a modest easing in FX demand pressure.
At the official market (NAFEM), the currency was relatively stable. It closed at ₦1,532/$ on July 11, compared to ₦1,533.99/$ the previous week, marking a slight appreciation of ₦1.99.
This stability was supported by improved FX supply from the CBN, increased investor confidence, and reduced speculation. Still, Nigeria’s FX outlook remains fragile due to low reserves and global economic uncertainty.
Key Takeaway:
The naira is stronger this week, but lasting stability depends on steady FX inflows, investor confidence, and broader improvements in Nigeria’s external position. Gains may not hold if those fundamentals weaken again.
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda.
Equities Update
Insurance, Banking, and Value Stocks Power Market Rally
The NGX All‑Share Index rose sharply by 4.26%, closing at 126,149.59, as strong buying returned to the market after weeks of sideways trading. The rally was led by gains in insurance, banking, and value-focused indices, supported by renewed investor confidence ahead of the Q2 earnings season. With this performance, the index is now up 22.56% year-to-date, reflecting a strong rebound in investor appetite despite earlier market volatility.
Market capitalization also climbed 4.54% to ₦79.80 trillion, with virtually all sector indices finishing higher except Oil & Gas, which recorded a mild decline.
Sector Performance (Weekly):
Insurance: +13.83%The standout performer. Strong gains in firms like Mutual Benefits Assurance and AIICO helped drive the sector to its best weekly gain in 2025.
Banking: +12.49%Banks saw more buying interest from investors, likely driven by anticipation of solid Q2 earnings and a stable interest rate outlook ahead of the CBN’s MPC meeting.
Consumer Goods: +2.18%Investors continued to buy key names like Unilever and Cadbury, which helped the sector maintain its resilience.
Industrial Goods: +2.94%
The sector bounced back modestly this week, recovering from earlier losses driven by sell-offs in major cement stocks.
Oil & Gas: –0.72%The only major sector to close negative, reflecting cautious sentiment as global oil prices fluctuated.
Key Takeaways:
- Insurance and Banking stocks drove the market’s strong weekly performance, signaling rising investor optimism.
Fixed Income Update
T-Bill Auction: Strong Demand, Mixed Yields
Yields on Nigeria’s treasury bills and bonds dropped this week as more people bought government securities. This means the government can now borrow money at cheaper rates.
Treasury Bills:
- 91-day bill: Stop rate dropped to 15.34% from 15.80%
- 182-day bill: Unchanged at 16.20%
- 364-day bill: Rose slightly to 18.30%, but the true yield fell sharply to 19.42%.
FGN Bonds:
The 10-year bond yield was 16.66%, slightly lower than before. This shows more investors are also buying long-term government bonds.
Key Takeaway:
Interest rates are falling because more investors are buying T-bills and bonds, driven by high liquidity in the banking system. This helps the government borrow money cheaply, but it also means investors need to be smart about getting good returns especially with inflation still high.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks .
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
Trump’s Tariff Threats Worry Global Markets
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has sent letters to several countries warning that the U.S. will put new tariffs (extra taxes on imports) of 20% to 50% on their goods if they don’t agree to new trade deals by August 1.
Countries like Canada, Brazil, India, Japan, and the EU are affected. Canada is already facing a 25% tariff, and others like Brazil could soon face even higher rates. These threats have raised fears of a possible trade war and made investors nervous about what could happen to prices and business costs. Due to worries about the new tariffs, stock markets suffered losses.
Stock Market Performance
- S&P 500 (US): Fell –0.74% as investors worried about trade
- Nasdaq (US): Dropped –1.18%, led by tech stocks like Meta
- Dow Jones (US): Down –0.43%, affected by industrial companies
- FTSE 100 (UK): Up +0.4%, calm week in Europe
- Nikkei 225 (Japan): Fell –0.6%, still facing weak demand
- MSCI World Index: Fell –0.3%, showing overall global concern
Key Takeaways:
- Trump’s new tariff threats could lead to higher prices and trade problems between countries.
- Stock markets fell as investors reacted to the news.
We hope you found this edition insightful. Stay focused on your financial goals!