MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
November 24, 2025.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Nigeria’s October Inflation Report: Disinflationary Trend Confirmed, But Underlying Pressures Accelerate
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) delivered some good news this week with the release of the Nigeria October 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The data showed that the headline inflation rate eased for the seventh consecutive month to 16.05% year-on-year (YoY) from the 18.02% recorded in September. This marks the lowest inflation reading since March 2022.
The most notable driver of this disinflationary trend was the Food Inflation component, which eased sharply to 13.12% YoY from 16.87% in September. This improvement is primarily attributed to two factors: favourable base effects from the high inflation figures of late 2024, and the temporary relief provided by the peak harvest season, which boosted domestic supply of staple goods.
However, the relief is not absolute. While the annual rate is falling, a closer look at the month-on-month (MoM) figures reveals persistent underlying pressures. The Month-on-Month Headline Inflation rate increased to 0.93% in October from 0.72% in September.
Furthermore, Core Inflation (which strips out volatile food and energy prices) remained sticky. While the annual Core Inflation rate continued its moderation to 18.69% YoY (from 19.53% in September), the MoM Core Inflation rate was largely unchanged at approximately 1.42%. This underscores sustained price pressures across non-food and non-energy goods and services.
Key Takeaways:
- Nigeria’s inflation rate fell to 16.05%, the lowest since 2022, following a further reduction in food prices in October. However, signs of rising inflation are emerging in other goods and services.
- As the CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee meets this week, there is a strong possibility for further interest rate cuts.
FX Update
Naira Softens as Reserves Hit 7-Year High
The naira experienced a mild weakening last week despite continued improvements in Nigeria’s external reserves.
At the official market (Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, NFEM), the currency closed the week at ₦1,456.73/$, slightly weaker than the ₦1,442.43/$ recorded the previous week. In the parallel market, the naira traded at ₦1,474/$, compared to ₦1,458/$ the previous week.
Meanwhile, the external reserves continued its robust ascent, reaching $44.189 billion. This marks the highest level in seven years, surpassing the previous week’s figure of $43.427 billion. The steady build-up in reserves is supported by improved foreign investor participation and external borrowings.
The rising reserves provide the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) with stronger foreign exchange buffers to manage market pressures, meet external obligations, and support the currency, even as short-term fluctuations persist.
Key Takeaway:
- Nigeria’s external reserves have climbed to a seven-year high of $44.189 billion, significantly strengthening FX buffers.
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Equities Update
NGX Declines by 2.24% on Profit-Taking and Bearish Sentiment
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) stock market experienced a broad-based decline last week (November 17–21, 2025), driven by persistent investor profit-taking and bearish sentiment. The All-Share Index (ASI) closed with an approximate 2.24% loss for the week. The downturn resulted in significant losses for investors, though the market maintains a strong Year-to-Date (YtD) gain of 36.64%.
The sell-off was evident across key sectors: Insurance saw the deepest weekly cut, plunging 7.05%, while Banking fell by 3.85%. Industrial Goods also dropped significantly by 4.50%. The Oil and Gas sector was also down, closing the week with a 1.61% loss. Only the Consumer Goods sector showed relative resilience, limiting its loss to 0.44%.
Key Takeaway:
- The significant weekly drop, especially in sectors like Banking and Insurance, reminds investors that profit-taking is an inevitable part of a bull market, underscoring the importance of disciplined risk management and portfolio rebalancing following previous sharp gains.
Fixed Income Update
Treasury Bill Yields Steady
Despite falling inflation rates, yields have remained steady at treasury bill auctions. In the November 19 auction, the yield was maintained at 19.1% the 364-day paper, unchanged from the November 5 auction.
In the secondary market, investors have been actively buying, which has resulted in a continued, albeit slight, easing of interest rates compared to the previous week. The yield on the 91-day T-Bill eased by 0.05% (from 16.31% to 16.26%), and the 182-day T-Bill also eased by 0.05% (from 16.76% to 16.71%). Similarly, the 364-day T-Bill yield dropped by 0.06% (from 17.98% to 17.92%).
The most notable move was in benchmark FGN Bond yields, which softened by 0.28%, closing at 15.21% compared to 15.49% previously. This consistent week-on-week easing confirms the strong buying pressure across the yield curve.
Key Takeaway:
- Despite falling inflation and an oversubscription (over ₦1.3 trillion at the last auction), the CBN is holding T-Bill yields steady.
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For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
Volatility Surges as AI Stocks and Rate Cut Hopes Retreat
The global market last week (November 17–21, 2025) was characterised by a general downward trend and heightened volatility, primarily driven by shifting expectations for the US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and concerns over the valuation of high-flying Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks.
This risk-off sentiment led the MSCI World Index to fall by 1.12% for the week. The core driver was the diminished anticipation of a December rate cut by the US.Fed, which pushed US Treasury yields higher and weighed on equities. Simultaneously, the highly valued AI and technology sectors faced heavy selling pressure amid investor anxiety, leading the Nasdaq Composite to decline by 0.86%.
US stocks broadly tracked this caution, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.48% and the S&P 500 losing 1.21%. European and Asian markets mirrored this weakness: the CAC 40 in France dropped 2.12%, the FTSE 100 in the UK fell 1.64%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 plummeted 3.29%, indicating a global flight from riskier assets this week. Despite the sharp weekly losses, the overall Year-to-Date performance across these major indices remains firmly positive.
Key Takeaway:
A combination of diminishing expectations for US Fed rate cuts and a significant sell-off in high-valuation AI and technology stocks drove global markets lower this week.
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We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!