MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
November 3, 2025.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Nigeria Moves to Strengthen Its Finances with $2.35bn Borrowing Plan and First International Sukuk
The House of Representatives has approved President Bola Tinubu’s plan to borrow $2.35 billion from foreign lenders to help fund Nigeria’s 2025 national budget. This move is part of a broader plan to manage the government’s expected ₦13.08 trillion budget deficit, with most of the borrowing coming from local sources (₦7.43 trillion) and the rest from foreign loans (₦1.84 trillion).
In simple terms, the government needs this money to cover gaps in its budget, fund important projects like infrastructure, and ensure there’s enough cash to keep the country running smoothly.
The $2.35 billion will be raised through a mix of Eurobonds, international loans, and syndicated financing, basically, different ways of borrowing money from global markets at reasonable costs. About $1.12 billion of this will go toward refinancing an older Eurobond that’s due for repayment in November 2025, instead of paying it off all at once. This helps ease short-term pressure on government finances and spreads out repayment over time.
One exciting development is Nigeria’s plan to issue its first-ever international Sukuk bond, a $500 million Islamic-compliant bond. This will attract investors from the Middle East and Asia who prefer Sharia-compliant investments, helping Nigeria access new sources of funding and potentially lower borrowing costs.
So far this year, the government has mostly focused on borrowing locally, but with bond rates around 16%, domestic borrowing remains quite expensive. Overall, this borrowing plan shows a cautious but strategic approach, balancing the need to fund key projects and manage cash flow without taking on too much risky foreign debt.
Key Takeaway:
- Nigeria’s 2025 borrowing plan means attractive returns but higher risks. Local bonds offer strong yields around 16%, while the new international Sukuk opens fresh opportunities for global investors. However, high borrowing costs and rising debt levels could strain government finances, so investors should expect good returns but stay alert to fiscal and inflation risks.
FX Update
Naira Gains Momentum Amid Improved FX Inflows and Reserve Build-Up
The naira recorded gains in both the official and parallel markets this week, driven by improved foreign exchange inflows and a buildup in external reserves.
At the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), the naira appreciated by 2.5%, trading at ₦1,422/$ on October 31, compared to ₦1,458/$ a week earlier. The parallel market also saw modest strengthening, with the naira moving to ₦1,465/$ from ₦1,487/$.
Nigeria’s external reserves increased to $43.17 billion as of October 30, up from $42.87 billion on October 22, reflecting renewed confidence and improved FX supply conditions.
Key Takeaway:
- A stronger naira and higher reserves signal improved liquidity in the foreign exchange market, boosting investor sentiment in the short-term.
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda. Just visit www.getladda.com to download. You can also earn up to 20% by investing in naira savings.
Equities Update
NGX Ends Week Lower as Profit-Taking Pressures the ASI
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) ended the week in negative, with the All-Share Index (ASI) dropping by 0.98%, bringing the year-to-date (YTD) return down to 49.74% from 51.22% the previous week. The decline was mainly due to profit-taking and sell-offs in major blue-chip stocks.
The Industrial Goods sector fell by 1.02%, trimming its YTD gain to 66.73% from 68.45%. The Oil and Gas sector recorded a slight uptick of 0.30%, raising its YTD performance to 7.40% from 7.09%.
The Consumer Goods sector posted the steepest loss, down 2.73%, which reduced its YTD return to 104.10% from 109.32%. The Banking sector declined by 2.11%, pulling its YTD return down to 35.21% from 38.12%. The Insurance sector also lost ground, falling 3.47%, bringing its YTD figure to 71.47% from 77.63%.
Overall, market sentiment remained cautious as investors continued to lock in profits amid mixed corporate earnings.
Key Takeaway:
- The recent market dip signals short-term volatility driven by sell-offs in large-cap stocks. However, sector declines, especially in banking and consumer goods, present buying opportunities in fundamentally strong stocks for long-term investors.
Fixed Income Update
Investors Demand Higher Returns as T-Bill Yields Climb
Treasury bill yields trended upward during the week, reflecting tighter liquidity conditions in the money market. As of October 31, the 90-day bill increased to 16.79% from 16.33% in the previous week, the 180-day bill inched up to 17.37% from 17.31%, while the 365-day bill rose slightly to 18.56% from 18.12%.
Key Takeaway:
- Short-term yields remain attractive for investors seeking quick returns, but the decline in 1-year yields signals growing market confidence that interest rates may start to moderate in the coming months.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
Fed Eases Rates Again Amid Economic Uncertainty and Mixed Global Market Reactions
The US Federal Reserve just cut interest rates by 0.25%, bringing them down to the lowest level in three years (3.75%–4%). The goal is to give the economy some breathing room as job growth slows and big companies continue to announce layoffs.
Inflation is still hanging around, and not everyone at the Fed agrees on what to do next. Plus, with the government shutdown delaying key economic data, the Fed doesn’t have the full picture. For now, it’s playing it smart, easing up and watching how things unfold before deciding its next move in December.
Global stock markets had a mixed week. France’s CAC 40 fell 1.41% but remains up 9.87% year-to-date, while the UK’s FTSE 100 gained 0.74%, bringing its YTD performance to 17.64%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 5.02%, extending its impressive YTD gain to 33.34%. In the US, the S&P 500 slipped slightly by 0.08% (YTD: 16.56%), while the Nasdaq rose 0.80% (YTD: 23.05%).
In short, some markets gained while others dipped, showing a mix of investor sentiment globally.
Key Takeaways:
- Investors should diversify, as markets show mixed performance. Japan offers strong growth, while France and the US show caution. Overall, positive YTD trends support long-term investment opportunities.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!