MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
October 27, 2025.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Nigeria Exits FATF ‘Grey List’
In February 2023, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a global watchdog that protects the global financial system from terrorist financing (CFT), money laundering (AML), and proliferation financing (of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons) placed Nigeria on its grey list.
In simple terms, this means that policies to tackle AML/CFT in Nigeria were considered inadequate, and the gaps in AML/CFT exposes countries and the global economy to damaging risks. The grey list gives countries the opportunity to improve how they tackle these risks.
Last week, Nigeria exited the grey list, which means Nigeria has tightened its AML/CFT regime and is better prepared to deal with the associated risks.
This improvement has wide reaching positive impacts as Nigeria’s financial institutions, businesses and citizens can now better participate in the global financial system. In the past two years, it was difficult for them to build economic relationships as foreign partners were reluctant to do business with Nigeria given the perception of high AML/CFT risks and the costs of compliance. Nigeria’s removal from the grey list would expand economic opportunities through trade and investment.
Key takeaway:
- The removal from the FATF grey list would improve access to the global financial system and capital markets, supporting the Nigerian economy through stronger foreign trade and investment.
FX Update
Naira Strengthens Further as External Reserves Rise to $42.86 Billion
The naira appreciated across both the official and parallel markets this week, supported by steady foreign exchange inflows and stronger external reserves.
At the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), the naira rose to ₦1,457.95/$ on October 24, from ₦1,475.35/$ a week earlier—marking a 1.2% weekly appreciation. Similarly, in the parallel market, the naira strengthened slightly to ₦1,487/$ from ₦1,491/$ over the same period.
Nigeria’s external reserves rose to $42.865 billion as of October 22, up from $42.670 billion on October 15.
The sustained growth in reserves provides the CBN with more capacity to support the naira and market liquidity.
Key Takeaway:
- The naira extended its gains across both official and parallel markets this week, underpinned by rising reserves and improved investor confidence.
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Equities Update
NGX Hits All-Time High as Market Gains 4.48%
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) extended its rally this week, as the All-Share Index (ASI) rose 4.48% to a new all-time high of 151,456.91 points, pushing the year-to-date (YTD) return to 51.22% from 44.74% last week. Market capitalisation climbed to about ₦96.13 trillion, with stronger investor participation reflected in higher trading volumes and values.
Gains were broad-based but led by the Industrial Goods sector, up 10.61% (YTD: 68.45%), following strong advances in BUA Cement (+12.50%) and Dangote Cement (+10.83%), as investors positioned ahead of Q3 earnings releases. The Oil and Gas sector gained 9.13% (YTD: 7.09%), supported by a 25.20% surge in Aradel Holdings despite weakness in Conoil (–9.66%).
In the Consumer Goods sector, PZ Cussons (+14.19%) and NASCON (+12.77%) helped lift the index 3.94% (YTD: 109.32%), while MTN Nigeria (+8.56%) added strength to the ICT segment. On the downside, the Banking sector (–1.35%, YTD: 38.12%) and Insurance (–1.10%, YTD: 77.63%) saw mild profit-taking after recent rallies.
Overall, market sentiment remains upbeat, supported by steady earnings expectations, moderating inflation, and renewed confidence in Nigeria’s investment outlook
Key Takeaway:
- The NGX hit a record high this week, powered by strong gains in major cement, consumer, and energy stocks. Investor confidence remains firm ahead of earnings season, suggesting sustained momentum in blue-chip equities.
Fixed Income Update
Treasury Bill Rates Ease as Inflation Cools; DMO Sets Next Bond Auction for October 27
The Debt Management Office (DMO) has released its bond issuance plan for the fourth quarter, with the next auction scheduled for October 27, 2025. The government will reopen two existing bonds—one maturing in 2030 and another in 2032—and aims to raise between ₦120 billion and ₦150 billion for each. This is part of its ongoing effort to fund the budget and manage debt sustainably.
Meanwhile, treasury bill rates moved slightly lower this week as easing inflation boosted investor confidence. As of October 24, the 90-day bill stood at 16.33%, down from 16.38% the previous week. The 180-day bill also slipped to 17.31% from 17.37%, while the 365-day bill rose to 20.59% from 18.12%.
This shows that short-term rates are beginning to steady, even as investors continue to demand higher returns on longer bills. In the bond market, average yields also dipped a little to 15.78% from 15.81%, reflecting calmer sentiment and improving market stability.
Key Takeaway:
- With inflation showing signs of easing, the treasury bill and bond rates are holding steady.
- The upcoming DMO bond auction will test investor appetite, but overall market conditions remain stable with attractive returns for fixed-income investors.
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Star-Spangled Banner Recap
US Inflation Rises Slightly in September, Keeps Fed on Watch
The US annual inflation rate rose to 3.0% in September 2025, up from 2.9% in August, marking the highest level so far this year, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.3%, driven mainly by higher energy and shelter costs.
Core inflation—which excludes food and energy—held steady at 3.0%, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain sticky. While inflation is far below the 9% peak seen in 2022, the recent uptick signals that the Federal Reserve may remain cautious before cutting interest rates.
Global equities reflected mixed performance during the week. The CAC 40 in France gained 0.24% (YTD: 11.45%), the FTSE 100 rose 0.70% (YTD: 3.11%), and Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.23% (YTD: 23.57%). In the US, optimism over inflation and potential rate cuts lifted the S&P 500 by 1.52% (YTD: 15.73%) and the Nasdaq by 2.31% (YTD: 20.17%).
Key Takeaways
- Inflation in the US has climbed to its highest level this year, signalling persistent price pressures. However, investor optimism about possible rate cuts later in the year continues to support global equity markets.
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We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!