MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
October 13, 2025.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Nigeria’s Economy Shows Renewed Strength as Public Debt Set to Fall Below 40%, World Bank
Nigeria’s public debt is expected to drop below 40% of GDP for the first time in more than 10 years—a strong sign that the country’s finances are becoming more stable. This improvement comes from better control of government spending, stronger revenue collection, and a more disciplined approach to borrowing.
According to the World Bank’s October 2025 Nigeria Development Update, the economy is growing steadily, with GDP expected to rise from 4.2% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2027. The fiscal deficit is to stay at 2.6% of GDP, while debt is projected to fall from 42.9% to 39.8%. These numbers suggest that Nigeria is slowly building a more sustainable financial path.
Still, the challenge remains, as many Nigerians are spending up to 70% of their income on food, leaving little room for savings or investment.
The real test now is how well the government can turn these fiscal gains into better living conditions for ordinary people. Continued reform, smart spending, and strong revenue management will be key to keeping debt low while improving livelihoods.
Key Takeaways:
- Investors should look beyond oil, as Nigeria’s growth is increasingly driven by non-oil sectors. With the macroeconomic environment stabilising, this is a good time to re-enter or expand positions. Over the medium- to long-term, Nigeria’s projected 4.4% GDP growth by 2027 signals steady recovery and strong potential returns for investors who stay the course as reforms deepen.
FX Update
Naira Records Mixed Performance Amid Rising FX Reserves
Between October 3 and October 10, 2025, the naira recorded mixed performance across market segments. At the official window, it appreciated by 0.72%, strengthening to ₦1,455.17/$ from ₦1,465.67/$. However, in the parallel market, it weakened by 2.41%, moving from ₦1,450/$ to ₦1,485/$, reflecting persistent demand pressures outside the formal market.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s external reserves inched higher by $133.81 million (0.32%), rising from $42.41 billion to $42.58 billion, underscoring moderate FX inflows and improved external liquidity.
Key Takeaway:
- For investors, the data reflects a cautiously improving outlook. The naira’s official gain shows stronger FX management. Rising reserves boost confidence in Nigeria’s external stability, but investors should stay selective, favouring export-driven and FX-hedged sectors while remaining cautious with import-dependent businesses.
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda. Just visit www.getladda.com to download. You can also earn up to 20% by investing in naira savings.
Equities Update:
Industrial Goods Lead Weekly Rally as Banking Stocks Dip
Nigeria’s equities market extended its positive run for the week ended October 10, 2025, with the NGX All-Share Index rising 2.37%, bringing year-to-date returns to 42.81%.
The Industrial Goods sector led with a 4.23% gain, fuelled by investor interest in cement and construction stocks on expectations of higher infrastructure spending. Consumer Goods followed with a 0.83% rise, lifting its YTD return to 98.04%, as investors favoured resilient FMCG stocks. The Oil and Gas sector gained 2.90%, supported by steady downstream activity despite lower crude prices.
In contrast, the Banking sector fell 0.41%, trimming its YTD return to 40.19%, amid profit-taking and liquidity concerns linked to the CBN’s new POS agent guidelines.
Key Takeaway:
- Investors should hold growth positions in industrial and consumer stocks, maintain measured exposure to oil and gas, and watch for entry opportunities in banking as liquidity pressures ease.
Fixed Income Update
Yields Ease Across Treasury Bill Tenors
Last week, the Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market recorded a broad-based decline in yields across all maturities in the secondary market, reflecting improved liquidity conditions and sustained demand for government securities.
Specifically, the 91-day bill yield declined from 17.31% to 16.44%. Similarly, the 182-day tenor moderated from 17.91% to 17.31%, while the 364-day bill experienced a decline from 18.48.% to 18.20%. Bond yields moved the other way, with the benchmark average slipping to 15.76% from 16.21%, reflecting steady demand from buyers.
In the primary market, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) held its Treasury Bills auction for October mid-week, putting ₦570 billion up. Investors’ total demand hit ₦1.06 trillion! Most of the excitement was around the one-year bills, thanks to their higher interest rates.
In the end, the CBN stuck to its plan and sold exactly ₦570 billion worth of bills. Rates stayed steady at 15% for the 91-day, 15.25% for the 182-day, and 15.77% for the 364-day maturities.
Key Takeaway:
- With yields trending lower across the Treasury Bill curve, investors may want to lock in current rates before further declines. The strong demand and steady auction stop rates suggest that short-term yields could compress further if liquidity remains high.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks .
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
Trump’s Tariff Threat Reignites US–China Trade Volatility
Global equities retreated after President Donald Trump threatened a “massive” tariff hike on Chinese imports, reigniting fears of a renewed US–China trade war. The timing, just weeks before a scheduled meeting with President Xi, undermined hopes for near-term policy reconciliation.
China announced new export restrictions on rare earths and advanced technologies vital to defense and electric vehicle production. The move would lead to supply chain disruptions and tech-sector vulnerability as the US is not capable of meeting supply locally or elsewhere.
In response, major indices posted steep declines: the S&P 500 fell 2.67% (YTD: +11.65%), the FTSE 100 slipped 0.67% (YTD: +14.13%), and the CAC 40 dropped 1.46% (YTD: +7.07%). Conversely, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 3.12% (YTD: +22.34%). The MSCI World Index declined 2.30%, trimming its year-to-date performance to +14.29%.
The fading optimism around global trade talks has shifted sentiment toward risk aversion, with investors repositioning into safe-haven assets such as gold, silver and the US dollar. Until tangible progress emerges in the November discussions, volatility and defensive positioning are expected to dominate global markets.
Key Takeaway:
- Renewed US–China tensions signal more market volatility, especially in tech and manufacturing. Investors are likely to shift toward safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar. For now, investors should stay defensive, focus on quality stocks, and watch the November trade talks for clearer direction.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda, a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!