MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
October 06, 2025.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Nigeria Q2 2025 GDP: Growth Accelerates to 4.23% as Industry Leads
Nigeria’s economy expanded by 4.23% year-on-year in Q2 2025, up from 3.48% in Q2 2024 and 3.13% in Q1 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This marks the strongest quarterly growth since the GDP rebasing to 2019, highlighting improving momentum across both oil and non-oil sectors.
The report shows that the Industry sector grew 7.45%, more than doubling its pace from 3.72% a year earlier, supported by higher crude production, manufacturing, and construction activity. The Services sector maintained steady growth at 3.94%, while Agriculture improved modestly to 2.82% despite persistent cost pressures. In nominal terms, GDP stood at ₦100.73 trillion, a 19.2% increase from Q2 2024.
Key takeaways:
- The rebound in industry signals that growth is broadening beyond services, giving the economy a firmer base. Stronger output provides the government with more fiscal breathing room through higher tax and oil-linked revenues.
- For the markets, sustained growth above 4% supports investor sentiment, strengthens Nigeria’s resilience against external shocks, and creates tailwinds for sectors tied to infrastructure, energy, and consumer demand.
- However, the persistence of inflation and currency pressures means that sustaining this momentum will require consistent policy execution.
FX Update
Naira Strengthens Sharply Across Markets as Reserves Edge Higher
Between Friday, September 26, 2025, and Friday, October 3, 2025, the naira posted strong gains in both the official and parallel markets. In the official window, it appreciated to ₦1,465.67/$ from ₦1,480.65/$, a 1.01% weekly gain. In the parallel market, it strengthened to ₦1,450/$ from ₦1,515/$, posting a 4.29% gain in one week.
On the reserves front, Nigeria’s external buffers also advanced. As of October 2, foreign reserves stood at $42.41 billion, up from $42.26 billion on September 26—an increase of $151 million (0.36%).
These moves suggest improving confidence in the naira, buoyed by steady inflows and demand dynamics in both FX windows.
Key Takeaway:
- The naira gained 1.01% in the official market and 4.29% in the parallel market over the week, while reserves rose by 0.36%. For savers and investors, this is a positive short-term signal—but maintaining some dollar exposures remains a wise hedge against future volatility.
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda. Just visit www.getladda.com to download. You can also earn up to 20% by investing in naira savings.
Equities Update
NGX Posts 1.02% Weekly Gain
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) closed the week on a positive note as the All-Share Index (ASI) advanced 1.02% week-on-week to settle at 141,979.30 points. Year-to-date, the market remains resilient with a strong gain of 39.50%. Market capitalisation also rose by about ₦1 trillion, ending the week at ₦89.9 trillion.
Across sectors, performance was mixed. Banking stocks surged 17.64% for the week, extending their year-to-date gain to 40.77%, driven largely by renewed investor confidence in recapitalisation progress and strong liquidity conditions. The oil and gas sector rebounded 5.68% but remained down 4.68% year-to-date. Insurance stocks pulled back by 2.02% week-on-week, though still higher by 68.91% in 2025, and consumer goods gained 0.13% for the week, leaving the sector up 96.42% year-to-date. Meanwhile, industrial goods advanced 1.66% week-on-week and 42.15% year-to-date, buoyed by sustained demand for cement majors.
Key takeaway:
- Market sentiment remains bullish with the ASI nearing the 40% return mark for the year. Banking stocks are leading this rally with strong investor demand, while oil and gas is showing signs of recovery. Insurance remains one of the year’s outperformers despite its weekly pullback, and consumer goods continue to set the pace for equity gains in 2025.
Fixed Income Update
Investors Favour Short-Term Bills as One-Year Yields Jump
Treasury bill yields moved in different directions last week compared to September 26. The 90-day bill dropped to 17.31% from 17.74%, a 2.42% decline, while the 182-day bill inched down to 17.91% from 17.96%, a 0.28% dip—showing that short-term liquidity has improved.
On the other hand, the one-year bill jumped to 20.83% from 19.16%, an 8.71% rise, as investors showed less appetite for locking in funds for a full year without extra returns. Bond yields moved the other way, with the benchmark average slipping to 16.21% from 16.41%, a 1.22% decline, reflecting steady demand from buyers.
This mixed picture shows that investors are comfortable with short-term placements but remain cautious about longer commitments, pushing up yields on the one-year paper.
Key Takeaway:
- Short-term treasury bill rates fell as liquidity improved, but the one-year bill rose sharply because investors were less interested in tying money down for too long. Bond yields eased slightly thanks to steady demand.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
US Shutdown and Mixed Data Keep Markets Cautious – Fed Still on Watch
The US federal government went into shutdown on October 1, 2025, after Congress failed to pass funding before the deadline. The shutdown has already delayed several official data releases (including the September jobs report), complicating the Federal Reserve’s ability to interpret the economic picture and increasing short-term uncertainty for markets. Markets are watching whether Washington resolves the impasse quickly or lets it drag on. A prolonged shutdown would weigh on government services, certain consumer spending categories and federal contracting.
With official jobs data on hold, market participants are relying on private and alternate indicators. Those alternate sources suggest a sluggish September for hiring and softer labour conditions, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may have to show more patience on tightening and could be more open to rate cuts later in the year—a key reason equities found support this week.
Despite the shutdown and shaky labour signals, global equities advanced: the S&P 500 rose 0.8% (YtD: +14.44%), while the Nasdaq gained 0.75% (YtD: +18.11%). Europe fared even better, with France’s CAC 40 up 2.31% (YtD: +9.30%) and the UK’s FTSE 100 advancing 2.22% (YtD: +14.90%), supported by energy and financial stocks. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.45% (YtD: +16.44%), continuing its strong momentum on robust earnings and a weaker yen. Still, profit-taking into Friday showed lingering investor caution.
Key Takeaway:
- The shutdown raises short-term risk and clouds data flow, but markets are rallying on the growing expectation of Fed easing based on weaker labour signals from alternate sources; investors should be cautious—a longer shutdown or stronger inflation surprises would quickly shift market sentiment.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!