MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
September 29, 2025.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
CBN Cuts Interest Rate to 27% to Boost the Economy
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has lowered its main interest rate, the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), to 27%. It maintained a band of +2.5%/–1.5% around the rate, putting the lending rate at about 29.5% and the deposit rate at about 25.5%. This is the first rate cut since September 2020, marking the start of a new easing cycle aimed at making borrowing cheaper, encouraging business loans, and supporting faster economic growth.
This move signals a shift away from the very high interest rates that were used to fight inflation, as the CBN now sees signs that price pressures are easing and the economy can handle a bit more liquidity.
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to cut rates comes against a backdrop of easing economic pressures. Inflation slowed to 20.13% in August, down from 21.83% in July, a sign that the relentless rise in consumer prices is beginning to cool. At the same time, the naira has held steady between ₦1,440 and ₦1,600 per dollar since February, supported by stronger oil revenues, renewed foreign investment, and proactive CBN interventions. Globally, the move is also in step with the US Federal Reserve, which lowered its own rates earlier this month, creating a more favourable environment for Nigeria to follow suit without putting undue strain on its currency or capital flows.
Even before the CBN made its move, treasury bill rates were already coming down, showing that the market expected borrowing to get cheaper. By cutting rates, the CBN is simply matching its own policy rate to market rates, which usually change faster.
What this means for you:
- Bond yields may drop a bit as rates fall, while stocks could benefit from easier borrowing and more money flowing in the market. People with savings accounts will also earn slightly less interest since banks pay 30% of the CBN’s rate. At the same time, businesses and individuals may get cheaper loans as banks adjust their lending rates. Overall, lower rates make it easier for companies to grow, which can be good news for the stock market.
FX Update
Nigeria’s Dollar Reserves Hit Six-Year High as Naira Strengthens
Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves have risen to $42.03 billion as of Friday, September 26, 2025, the highest in six years. This is up from $41.6 billion just a week ago and well above the July low of about $37.18 billion.
The growth comes from stronger oil sales and foreign investment. Bigger reserves give the central bank more power to protect the naira and pay for imports.
The naira also strengthened in both markets. In the official market, it closed at ₦1,488 per dollar, an improvement from ₦1,503.5 per dollar last Friday. In the parallel market, it firmed to about ₦1,515 per dollar, compared with ₦1,526 per dollar a week earlier.
Key Takeaways:
- Higher reserves and a stronger naira mean short-term stability for the currency and consumer goods prices.
- Investors can slowly add naira assets but should still keep some protection against the dollar.
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda. Just visit www.getladda.com to download. You can also earn up to 20% by investing in naira savings.
Equities Update
NGX Gains 0.20% This Week, Led by Banking
The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) closed the week at 142,133.03 points, up 287.68 points (0.20%) from last week. This brings the year-to-date return to 38.09%. The small gain came mostly from the Banking sector, which went up 1.19%.
Sector Performance
The Banking sector climbed 1.19% as investors reacted positively to recent earnings reports, with stocks like GTCO and UBA drawing strong interest after posting resilient numbers. Consumer Goods slipped 0.08% on mild profit-taking in names such as Nestlé and Dangote Sugar, while Insurance dropped 0.91% as earlier gains in Custodian and AIICOwere pared back. Oil and Gas led the day with a 2.79% jump, supported by steady oil prices and renewed demand, with Seplat and Oando among the key drivers. Industrial Goods inched up 0.05%, a sign of a brief pause in momentum rather than weakness, as Dangote Cement remained stable.
What this means for you:
Investors should spread their money across sectors, with Banking offering short-term opportunities but less room for big gains as earnings cool. Be cautious with Consumer Goods and Insurance, and focus on companies where profits remain strong, like GTCO, UBA, Seplat, and Oando.
Fixed Income Update
Mixed Trend in the Money Market
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (T-bills) market closed this week with mixed movements across maturities.
The 91-day bill slipped slightly from 17.80% to 17.74% on mild investor caution, the 182-day bill dropped from 18.50% to 17.96% as demand picked up for mid-term papers, and the 364-day bill eased from 19.41% to 19.16% as investors took longer positions ahead of fresh bond offers.
Rather than a “mixed” session, this was a clear, broad decline across all maturities, showing stronger demand in the T-bills market.
The FGN bond market also saw lower yields, with benchmark bond rates at 16.38%, down from 16.47% last week.
What this means for you:
Investors can lock in longer-term T-bills while rates are still attractive. It’s also smart to spread investments across short-, mid-, and long-term bills so you have some cash coming back sooner and don’t get stuck reinvesting later at lower rates. Watch for upcoming policy moves that could change interest rates.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks .
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
US Inflation Rises Slightly, Keeping the Fed on Guard
In August 2025, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.6% in July. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, held steady at 2.9%, while monthly PCE increased 0.3%.
This modest uptick keeps inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, even as the central bank recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%–4.25% to support the labour market. The combination of slightly higher prices and easier monetary policy underscores the Fed’s delicate balancing act between sustaining growth and preventing a resurgence in inflation.
Despite the inflation concern, US equities held firm. Investors interpreted the data as evidence that the economy remains resilient, while the Fed is unlikely to reverse its easing path immediately.
For long-term investors, the key question is whether inflation will settle toward target or remain sticky. Gold remains a safe-haven in case central banks lose control of inflation.
In the week ending September 26, 2025, global equity markets posted mixed performances.
- S&P 500 gained 0.62%, extending its year-to-date (YTD) return to 14.18%.
- FTSE 100 rose 0.35%, lifting YTD gains to 11.93%.
- Nikkei 225 slipped 0.80%, trimming YTD gains to 9.74%.
- CAC 40 edged up 0.12%, with YTD performance at 6.34%.
- On a broader scale, the MSCI World Index added 0.44%, pushing YTD gains to 16.11%.
What this means for you:
Investors should maintain a balanced approach, focusing on high-quality growth stocks and defensive sectors that can hold steady even as rates settle after the recent decision. Gold remains attractive as a hedge against sticky inflation, while a diversified global portfolio can help manage policy and economic risks in the US.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!