MoneyAfrica | Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
July 21, 2025
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Eases to 22.22% in June 2025
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 22.22% in June 2025, down from 22.97% in May, signalling a modest slowdown in the pace of rising consumer prices.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation inched up slightly to 1.68% in June from 1.53% in May, indicating that while prices continue to rise, the rate of increase remains relatively controlled.
Food Inflation
This dramatic drop is largely attributed to the revised base year.
Month-on-month, however, food prices rose more steeply at 3.25%, up from 2.19% in May, driven by increases in the prices of staples such as fresh pepper, tomatoes, crayfish, plantain flour, dried white shrimp, and ground pepper.
Core Inflation
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, declined to 22.76% in June 2025, compared to 27.40% in June 2024.
However, month-on-month core inflation rose to 2.46% from 1.10% in May, suggesting price pressures in non-food categories may be building.
Overall, the June 2025 inflation report reflects a notable year-on-year deceleration in consumer prices, largely due to base effects and recent adjustments in methodology. However, monthly inflation trends, particularly in food and core categories, suggest that underlying price pressures persist, warranting close monitoring in the months ahead.
Key Takeaways:
- Inflation has slowed down overall, but prices are still rising each month because of supply problems and deeper issues in the economy that affect costs and demand.
- With inflation still sticky at the monthly level, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is likely to maintain a tight monetary stance, which may affect borrowing costs and investment appetite.
FX Update
Naira Holds Ground: A Temporary Relief?
In the official market (NAFEM), the exchange rate held steady at ₦1,532/$, unchanged from the previous week.
The naira strengthened in the parallel market this week, appreciating to ₦1,535/$ from ₦1,550/$ last week, a ₦15 gain, indicating a slight reduction in FX demand pressure.
This relative stability was supported by increased reserve and oil exports.
Nigeria’s external reserves rose by approximately 1.12% over the past week, increasing from $37.43 billion to $37.85 billion as of July 17, 2025.
Nigeria’s oil production went up by 3.6% in June 2025, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission. The country produced an average of 1.51 million barrels per day, which is 52,533 barrels more than in May. This means Nigeria slightly passed its OPEC+ quota of 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) for the second time in 2025, the first being in January.
Key Takeaways:
- The naira showed some short-term stability, with gains in the parallel market and steady performance at the official rate, helped by improved FX supply and investor confidence.
- Nigeria’s external reserves grew slightly, rising by 1.12%—a positive signal for short-term currency support.
- Oil production exceeded the OPEC+ target in June, boosting export potential and signaling better government revenue prospects.
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda.
Equities Update
Nigerian Stock Market Hits Record High, Crosses 130,000 Mark
The NGX All-Share Index crossed the 130,000-point milestone for the first time, closing at 131,585.66. It gained 4.31% last week, raising the market value to ₦83.24 trillion and pushing the year-to-date return to 27.84%
Sectoral Performance Overview:
A sector-by-sector analysis reveals across the board:
- Banking Sector: Gained +5.36% this week, with a strong year-to-date (YTD) return of +41.64%.
- Insurance Sector: Lost -3.65% this week, but still holds a YTD gain of +21.33%.
- Consumer Goods Sector: Posted a small gain of +1.34% this week and has a solid YTD return of +62.76%.
- Oil and Gas Sector: Fell by -0.76% this week, and its YTD performance is now negative at -10.50%.
- Industrial Goods Sector: Led all sectors with a strong +19.17% gain this week, pushing its YTD return to +22.80%.
Key Takeaway:
- The ongoing rise in the All-Share Index may be driven by investors expecting strong earnings, which could indicate that Nigerian companies are showing resilience despite broader economic challenges.
Fixed Income Update
Download Movements in T-Bill Yields, Bond Yields Slightly Decline
As of July 18, 2025, treasury bill yields showed download movements.
- 91-day T-Bill: Yield decreased from 16.14% to 16.09%, a decrease of 0.31%.
- 182-day T-Bill: Yield decreased from 18.47% to 17.94%, a decrease by 2.87%.
- 364-day T-Bill: Yield decreased from 19.35% to 18.26%, a decrease by 5.63%.
The yield on the benchmark bond is currently at 16.38% from 16.66% the previous week
Key Takeaways:
- Returns are falling: Yields on all T-Bills (91, 182, and 364 days) dropped, meaning investors will earn less than they did in previous weeks.
- Monetary policy is easing and more investors are flocking to treasury bills and bonds. While this lowers borrowing costs for the government, it also means investors need to be more strategic to earn meaningful returns, especially with inflation still around 22%.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks .
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
Record-Breaking Week for S&P 500 and Nasdaq
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended at record highs on Thursday, July 17, 2025—thanks to strong company earnings that showed Americans are still spending.
The Nasdaq hit record highs in six of the last seven trading days, while the S&P 500 had its best performances since late June. After dropping earlier this year due to tariff announcements, the market has bounced back strongly.
This week was seen as a test of that recovery, and the start of the second-quarter earnings season. So far, the data shows the economy is still doing well, helping markets continue to rise.
Major Stock Markets Performance:
- S&P 500: Went up 0.67 % this week, pushing its year-to-date return to approximately 7.30%.
- FTSE 100 (UK): Saw a gain of 0.57% this week, maintaining a year-to-date return of approximately 10.02%.
- Nikkei 225 (Japan): Increased by 1.02% this week, but its year-to-date return is approximately +1.30%.
- CAC 40 (France): Gained 0.53% this week, and its year-to-date return is approximately 5.80%.
- MSCI World Index: Gained approximately 0.47% ,pushing its year-to-date return to approximately 9.65%.
Key Takeaways:
- Global stocks advanced as market confidence grew on positive economic signals and resilient corporate earnings.
- For investors, this underscores the importance of maintaining a globally diversified equity portfolio to capture growth across regions while cushioning against regional risks.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!