MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
August 15, 2026.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Macro Update
Nigeria Averages 1.505 Million Bpd in July, Steps Up Oil Investment Push
Nigeria averaged 1.505 million barrels per day of crude oil in July 2026, staying above its OPEC quota of 1.50 million bpd for the third consecutive month. This was, however, a 4% decline from June, driven by technical problems at some offshore oil fields.
Including condensates, total liquids output reached 1.67 million bpd, still short of the 1.84 million bpd assumption built into the 2026 budget. That volume shortfall has persisted through the year, but it has been more than offset by oil prices, which have risen sharply following the escalation of Middle East tensions. With realised prices running roughly 29% above the budget’s $64.85 benchmark, gross oil revenue in H1 2026 likely came in ahead of the budgeted figure despite the production gap.
Even so, Nigeria has not captured a genuine windfall this year. The gains from higher prices have simply offset weak production, rather than adding to it, underscoring the urgency of fixing the underlying output problem rather than relying on favourable prices to carry the fiscal numbers.
The current administration has responded by stepping up efforts to attract fresh investment into the oil sector, particularly deep offshore oil and gas projects. This has included tax incentives designed to make projects more bankable and help them reach Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) more quickly. The government’s stated ambition is to lift production toward 3 million bpd, though this is a medium-to-long-term goal rather than something achievable in the near term.
Key Takeaway:
- Nigeria is producing enough oil to satisfy OPEC but not enough to fund its own budget. The $2.49 billion revenue shortfall in H1 2026 feeds directly into the fiscal deficit and the government’s borrowing requirement. Until offshore production stabilises, the budget will remain under pressure regardless of what oil prices do.
FX Update
Naira Strengthens in Official Market as Reserves Hit Fresh High
The naira strengthened in the official market last week, closing at ₦1,357.60/$—an appreciation of ₦8.08 from ₦1,365.68/$ the previous week. In the parallel market, the naira held steady at ₦1,415/$, unchanged from the previous week.
The parallel market premium widened to ₦57.40 (4.23%), up from ₦49.32 (3.61%) the previous week, as the official rate’s gain outpaced the parallel market, which held flat.
External reserves rose to $52.258 billion, up from $52.032 billion the previous week, a gain of approximately $226 million. This extends reserves to a fresh multi-year high, supported by continued foreign exchange inflows.
Key Takeaway:
- The naira’s gain was concentrated in the official market last week, while the parallel market held steady, widening the premium between both windows. Reserves continued to build, reinforcing the currency’s support base, but the widening premium is worth watching.
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Equities Update
NGX Falls 1.20% as Sell-Off Deepens
The NGX All-Share Index fell 1.20% last week, closing at 242,619.20 points from 245,573.60 the previous week. Year-to-date return eased to 55.91% from 57.81%. Market capitalisation declined 1.19% to ₦156.624 trillion from ₦158.513 trillion.
The sell-off was broad-based. Consumer Goods led declines, falling 6.72% for the week, cutting its year-to-date return to 1.57%. Insurance fell 2.72%, extending its year-to-date loss to -5.09%. Banking, last week’s strongest performer, declined 1.48%, now up 68.09% year-to-date. Industrial Goods fell 1.22%, now up 82.84% year-to-date. Oil and Gas slipped 0.74%, now up 94.81% year-to-date.
Equities may stay under pressure this week as government securities continue to offer competitive returns, with the 364-day T-bill now yielding above 17.5%. That gap could keep pulling capital toward fixed income unless earnings surprises change the calculus. Tier-1 bank earnings are the main event this week, with Access Holdings, GTCO, and Zenith Bank set to report. Strong results could draw selective buying back into banking stocks even as the broader market stays cautious.
Key Takeaway:
- The market reversed sharply last week after months of gains, with losses spread across nearly every sector, including Banking, which had led the prior week’s rally. This week’s Tier-1 bank earnings will be a key test of whether the Banking sector can stabilise investor sentiment and steady the broader market.
Fixed Income update
CBN Resumes T-Bill Auction, Reopens OMO to Retail Investors
The CBN held its regular Treasury bill auction on August 12, offering ₦700 billion across three tenors, after skipping the previous week’s auction following its own back-to-back OMO auctions, which had mopped up ₦4.69 trillion from the system and left banks short on cash. The 91-day bill drew ₦162.21 billion in bids, with ₦148.57 billion allotted at an unchanged rate of 16.30%. The 182-day bill drew ₦63.97 billion, with ₦47.48 billion allotted at an unchanged 16.50%. The 364-day bill saw the strongest demand, with ₦4.19 trillion in bids against a ₦500 billion offer; the CBN allotted ₦1.26 trillion and raised the rate by 24 basis points to 17.59%.
On August 13, the CBN held an OMO auction under a new circular, dated August 12 and signed by Ag. Director of Financial Markets Okey Umeano, that reopened OMO participation to individuals, local corporates, and non-bank institutions for the first time since the CBN restricted access to banks and foreign investors only in October 2019. Deposit Money Banks now facilitate these bids and settle transactions on behalf of retail and corporate clients. The auction offered ₦600 billion across two tenors and drew ₦4.93 trillion in bids. The 103-day bill was allotted ₦449.74 billion at 20.39%, while the 138-day bill was allotted ₦2.15 trillion at 20.01%.
In the secondary market, T-bill yields rose last week. The 90-day yield rose to 17.26% from 17.10% the previous week. The 180-day yield eased slightly to 18.15% from 18.22%. The 365-day yield rose to 20.12% from 19.87%, reversing its recent downward trend.
The average bond yield rose to 16.79% from 16.71% the previous week, with yields ranging from 14.83% to 17.54% across the 16 bonds tracked.
OMO bill yields averaged 21.10% for the week, up from a range of 20.79%-21.47% the previous week.
Key Takeaway:
- The CBN resumed its Treasury bill auction after last week’s OMO-driven cancellation, raising the 364-day rate to capture strong demand. It also reopened OMO to individuals and non-bank institutions for the first time since a 2019 ban. T-bill and bond yields rose across most tenors, reversing the prior week’s declines
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Star-Spangled Banner
Markets Mixed as Cooler Inflation Data Meets Rising Middle East Tensions
US inflation data released last Wednesday showed prices continuing to cool, though only modestly. Headline CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year for July, down slightly from 3.5% in June. Core inflation eased to 2.5% year-over-year, its lowest level in five months.
The softer-than-expected inflation reading reinforced the view that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates at its September 16 meeting, helping stabilise short-dated Treasury yields and extending the rate-cut optimism from the prior week’s weak jobs report.
However, gains were capped by rising tensions in the Middle East: crude oil posted a strong weekly gain of 4-5% due to fears of a US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Brent crude closed at $88.82 a barrel.
US stocks closed mixed. The S&P 500 edged up 0.36% for the week, now up 13.74% year-to-date. The Nasdaq gained just 0.14%, now up 15.00% year-to-date, as tech stocks saw mild profit-taking despite continued strength in AI-related demand. The Dow Jones fell 0.56% for the week, now up 11.80% year-to-date. Globally, the MSCI World Index gained 0.45%, now up 13.14% year-to-date.
International markets were more mixed. Japan’s Nikkei was the standout, gaining 4.74% for the week and extending its year-to-date return to 36.50%. In Europe, the FTSE 100 fell 1.39% for the week, now up 8.24% year-to-date; while France’s CAC 40 declined 1.02%, now up 5.98% year-to-date.
Key Takeaway:
- Markets held up last week as softer inflation data eased rate-hike concerns, but gains were uneven and capped by rising Middle East tensions pushing oil prices higher. With US and European indices showing signs of fatigue while Japan continued its strong run, investor focus now shifts to how escalating geopolitical risk and the Fed’s next move shape sentiment heading into September.
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We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!