MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
August 10, 2026.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Macro Update
Nigeria’s Public Debt Rises Marginally to N159.35 Trillion in Q1 2026
Nigeria’s total public debt rose marginally to ₦159.35 trillion ($114.95 billion) as of March 31, 2026, up from ₦159.28 trillion in December 2025, an increase of just ₦75.5 billion over the quarter. The near-flat movement requires context to understand properly.
Domestic debt grew by ₦2.55 trillion during the quarter, reflecting continued government borrowing through FGN bonds and Treasury bills. However, the naira strengthened from ₦1,435.26/$ in December 2025 to ₦1,386.22/$ by March 2026. This reduced the naira value of Nigeria’s external debt by ₦2.48 trillion, almost entirely offsetting the increase in domestic borrowing. In dollar terms, external debt actually rose slightly from $51.86 billion to $51.90 billion.
This means the headline debt figure can rise or fall between quarters not just because of new borrowing, but because of exchange rate movements. When the naira strengthens, the naira value of dollar debt falls automatically and vice versa.
Since President Tinubu came into office in June 2023, total public debt has risen from ₦87.38 trillion to ₦159.35 trillion, driven by both new borrowing and the naira’s devaluation in that period, which inflated the naira value of dollar-denominated obligations.
Key Takeaway:
- The marginal Q1 debt increase masks two opposing forces: rising domestic borrowing and a stronger naira reducing the naira cost of external debt. As nominal GDP grows and the exchange rate stabilises, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio should improve. The more critical metric to watch is debt service as a share of government revenue, which remains under significant pressure and limits what the government can spend on productive sectors of the economy.
FX Update
Naira Strengthens as Reserves Cross $52 Billion
The naira strengthened slightly in the official market last week, closing at ₦1,365.68/$, an appreciation of ₦2.54 from ₦1,368.22/$, In the parallel market, the naira also firmed to ₦1,415/$ from ₦1,425/$, a gain of ₦10.
The parallel market premium narrowed to ₦49.32 (3.61%), down from ₦56.78 (4.15%) the previous week, easing the four-week widening trend and pointing to reduced pressure from informal-market dollar demand.
External reserves rose to $52.032 billion as of August 6, up from $51.922 billion the previous week, a gain of approximately $110 million. This marks a fresh multi-year high, supported by capital inflows.
Key Takeaway:
- Both the naira and reserves moved favourably last week, reversing the prior week’s trend. The narrowing premium is worth watching over the coming weeks to confirm whether this reflects a genuine easing in dollar demand or a temporary pullback.
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Equities Update
NGX Extends Gains as Banking Sector Rally Continues
The NGX All-Share Index rose 0.12% last week, closing at 245,573.60 points from 245,283.68 the previous week. The year-to-date return rose to 57.81% from 57.62%. Market capitalisation increased to ₦158.513 trillion from ₦158.33 trillion.
The index gain was driven mainly by the Banking sector, which rose ahead of scheduled Tier-1 bank earnings from Access Holdings, GTCO, and Zenith Bank. Market breadth was negative: 26 stocks advanced against 63 that declined, while 58 were unchanged. This shows the index gain was concentrated in a small number of large banking stocks rather than spread across the market.
Banking gained 2.33% for the week, now up 70.62% year-to-date. Consumer Goods fell 1.75% for the week, now up 8.88% year-to-date. Insurance declined 3.31% for the week, now down 2.44% year-to-date. Oil and Gas slipped 0.03%, now up 96.27% year-to-date. Industrial Goods eased 0.17%, now up 85.10% year-to-date.
Tier-1 bank earnings are due this week and will be a key factor for market direction. Results in line with or above expectations could support continued gains in the Banking sector. Results below expectations could lead to profit-taking, similar to what occurred in other sectors last week.
Key Takeaway:
- The index extended its gains last week, driven by the Banking sector strength ahead of Tier-1 bank earnings, even as most stocks declined. This week’s earnings releases will determine whether that strength is supported by underlying performance.
Fixed Income update
CBN Mops Up ₦4.69 Trillion via OMO, Cancels T-Bill Auction
The CBN conducted two consecutive OMO auctions on August 3 and 4, mopping up a combined ₦4.69 trillion from the banking system.
On August 3, the CBN offered the 141-day bill (maturing December 22) with a target of ₦300 billion. Heavy investor demand allowed the CBN to allot ₦2.52 trillion, clearing out a significant share of excess system liquidity, at a stop rate of 20.10%.
On August 4, the CBN floated a second auction offering two shorter tenors at an initial target of ₦300 billion each (₦600 billion total offer). It attracted ₦2.20 trillion in successful allotments from deposit money banks and foreign portfolio investors: ₦263.1 billion on the 112-day bill (maturing November 24) at a stop rate of 20.35%, and ₦1.91 trillion on the 133-day bill (maturing December 15) at 20.15%.
The scale of these mop-ups, driven by an estimated ₦5.5 trillion in system liquidity from heavy bank placements at the CBN’s standing deposit facility, led the CBN to cancel the regular ₦700 billion Treasury bill auction scheduled for midweek.
In the secondary market, T-bill yields eased slightly last week. The 90-day yield declined to 17.10% from 17.15% the previous week. The 180-day yield eased to 18.22% from 18.27%. The 364-day yield fell to 19.87% from 20.26%, extending its recent downward trend.
The average benchmark bond yield declined to 16.71% from 16.82% the previous week, continuing the compression seen over the past two weeks and confirming sustained demand for longer-dated government bonds.
OMO bill yields in the secondary market ranged from 20.79% (January 2027 paper) to 21.47% (November 2026 paper).
Key Takeaway:
- The CBN mopped up ₦4.69 trillion via OMO last week, well above its regular T-bill offer size, leading to the cancellation of the scheduled Treasury bill auction. Despite this aggressive tightening, secondary market yields on both T-bills and bonds continued to ease, pointing to sustained investor demand for Nigerian government securities.
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Star-Spangled Banner
Markets Rally to Record Highs as Weak Jobs Data Eases Fed Pressure
US nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, far below the expected increase of 95,000. May and June figures were also revised down by a combined 103,000, pointing to a cooling job market. The unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.1%, but this was because fewer people were looking for work, not because more people got hired. Wages grew 3.2% over the past year, a bit slower than the 3.5% recorded the month before.
Because the jobs report was weak, investors now think the Fed is less likely to raise interest rates at its next meeting on September 16. Futures markets had priced a 64% probability of a September rate hike before the report; that probability was priced out almost entirely once the data came in. This helped push the S&P 500 up 3.58% and the Nasdaq up 5.19% for the week. Gold surged to a seven-week high, closing near $4,350 to $4,400 an ounce, as falling Treasury yields reduced the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
That rate-cut optimism carried US stocks to record highs. The S&P 500 gained 3.58% for last week, now up 13.32% for the year. The Nasdaq led gains, rising 5.19% for last week and 14.84% for the year. The Dow Jones rose 2.96% for last week, now up 12.43% for the year. Globally, the MSCI World Index gained 0.62% for last week, now up 12.66% for the year.
Other markets also rose. Japan’s Nikkei gained 2.90% for last week, now up 30.33% for the year. The UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.30%, now up 9.76% for the year, and France’s CAC 40 gained 1.17%, now up 6.94% for the year.
Key Takeaway:
- Markets hit record highs last week mainly because a weak jobs report made investors believe the Fed won’t raise interest rates soon. The size of the jobs miss, and the downward revisions to prior month’s numbers, shows the US job market is slowing down. That’s worth watching as the Fed’s next meeting approaches.
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We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!