MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
June 22, 2026.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Macro Update
Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 15.93% Third Straight Monthly Rise
Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 15.93% year-on-year in May, up from 15.69% in April, the third consecutive monthly increase. On a month-on-month basis, however, headline inflation actually eased to 1.75% from 2.13% in April, driven mainly by slower food price growth and a sharp drop in rural inflation, which fell to 1.17% from 2.80%.
But this headline slowdown masks a worrying shift underneath. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, nearly doubled month-on-month, rising to 1.94% from 1.03% in April signalling fresh price pressure outside of food. Urban inflation also rose to 1.99% from 1.86%, even as rural areas cooled sharply. Food inflation eased slightly to 2.98% month-on-month from 3.63%, but remained elevated due to higher prices for staples like onions, maize, cassava flour, and tomatoes.
The renewed pressure is being driven by rising global energy costs, marine insurance, and shipping expenses tied to Middle East tensions, which are feeding into domestic logistics and manufacturing costs. Food-producing regions also continue to face security challenges that disrupt harvests, with Adamawa (29.62%), Kwara (28.47%), and Rivers (28.40%) recording the steepest year-on-year food inflation.
Rising inflation squeezes household spending power, pushes the CBN toward tighter monetary policy, and raises costs for manufacturers. For investors, fixed income instruments yielding below 15.93% currently generate negative real returns.
Key Takeaway:
- The headline number cooling month-on-month looks encouraging, but core inflation nearly doubling tells a different story — price pressure is broadening beyond food into the wider economy. That shift is the more important signal for where inflation heads next.
FX Update
Naira Weakens Slightly Despite 17-Year Peak in Reserves
The naira depreciated in the official market this week, closing at ₦1,370.45/$ on June 19 a weakening of ₦6.63 from ₦1,363.82/$ last week. In the parallel market, the naira weakened ₦5 to ₦1,405/$ from ₦1,400/$ last week.
The parallel market premium narrowed to ₦34.55 (2.52%), down from ₦36.18 (2.65%) last week.
External reserves climbed further to $51.035 billion as of June 18, with a gain of over $1 billion in two weeks and marking the highest level since January 2009. The buildup continues to be supported by oil revenues, diaspora remittances, and foreign portfolio inflows.
Key Takeaway:
- Reserves are now at their highest in 17 years, even as the naira weakened slightly in both markets this week. The CBN’s stronger external buffer gives it more room to manage volatility, but this week’s slight depreciation is worth watching going into next week.
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Equities Update
NGX Falls 3.56% as Banking and Insurance Lead the Selloff
The NGX All-Share Index dropped 3.56% this week, reversing last week’s 0.88% gain and pulling the year-to-date return down to 51.62% from 57.27% one of the sharpest weekly declines this year.
Every sector closed lower, with Banking and Insurance hit hardest. Banking fell 10.49%, pulling its year-to-date gain down to 35.77% from over 50% previously. Insurance dropped 7.22%, turning negative for the year at -1.75%. Industrial Goods fell 4.11% (now up 95.79% YTD), while Consumer Goods and Oil and Gas were more resilient, slipping 1.61% and 1.06% respectively.
Looking ahead, the market is likely to stay cautious next week. Valuations had become stretched after weeks of strong gains, prompting investors to take profit, particularly in Banking and Insurance stocks that had rallied the hardest. The market now needs a fresh catalyst to regain momentum, which Q2 earnings season could provide in the coming weeks. Some beaten-down banking and insurance stocks have also fallen to levels that may attract bargain hunters. Expect quiet, selective trading rather than a strong rally.
Key Takeaway:
- Whether this is a brief correction or the start of a longer pullback will become clearer as Q2 earnings season begins and investors decide if current valuations justify buying back in.
Fixed Income Update
CBN Raises ₦1.49 Trillion at Auction; Stop Rates Jump Across All Tenors
At the June 17 auction, the CBN offered ₦1 trillion across all three tenors and allotted ₦1.49 trillion, against total subscriptions of ₦1.86 trillion. Demand was overwhelmingly concentrated in the 364-day bill, which alone attracted ₦1.66 trillion in subscriptions against an ₦800 billion offer.
Stop rates rose across all tenors compared to the June 3 auction. The 91-day rate climbed 0.23% to 16.28%, the 182-day rose 0.31% to 16.50%, and the 364-day jumped nearly 1% to 17.34% pushing its annualised true yield to 20.98%, back above the 20% mark for the first time in five months.
No OMO auction was held this week, as the CBN relied on the T-bill auction to manage system liquidity.
In the secondary market, T-bill yields rose across all tenors. The 91-day yield climbed to 16.66% from 16.53% last week, the 180-day rose to 17.79% from 17.60%, and the 364-day increased to 19.71% from 19.27%. The average benchmark bond yield rose to 16.81% from 16.41% last week, a jump of 40 basis points.
OMO bills in the secondary market are currently yielding between 19.54% on the January 2027 paper and 21.17% on the July 2026 paper, broadly lower than last week’s range.
Key Takeaway:
- The CBN let the T-bill auction do the heavy lifting this week, rejecting nearly ₦5 trillion in OMO bids rather than adding fresh supply. Stop rates rose sharply at the auction, especially on the 1-year paper, and that repricing carried through to higher secondary market yields across the board.
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Star-Spangle Banner
Oil Drops as US-Iran Ceasefire Framework Is Signed, But Tensions Persist
A Memorandum of Understanding was signed this week, formalising a 60-day US-Iran ceasefire. However, follow-up talks were cancelled after Israel clashed with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by roughly 80 naval mines despite the deal. Iran has also introduced a restrictive permit system for ships using the waterway. Still, oil prices fell 13% this week into the mid-$70s, easing global bond yields.
Central banks moved in different directions. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% but struck a hawkish tone, with nine officials signalling a possible hike later this year. The Bank of England also held rates at 3.75%, while Brazil cut its rate to 14.25% and Japan raised its rate to a 31-year high.
Markets rallied, led by tech. SpaceX surged another 15% to $185/share, pushing its valuation to $2.44 trillion. The Nasdaq gained 2.74% for the week and has returned 14.09% year-to-date. The S&P 500 rose 1.44% for the week, now at 9.57% year-to-date, while the Dow added 1.41%, now at 7.29% year-to-date. The MSCI World Index slipped 0.72% for the week but remains at 8.60% year-to-date. Europe was mixed, while Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.28% for the week and now stands at 41.54% year-to-date.
Key Takeaway:
Oil’s drop reflects cautious optimism, not resolution the ceasefire is fragile and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Markets are pricing in relief, but the conflict is far from settled.
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We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!