MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
June 8, 2026.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Macro Update
Nigeria Attracted a Record $10.37 Billion in Foreign Capital in Q1 2026
Foreign capital flowing into Nigeria hit a record $10.37 billion in Q1 2026 up 83.8% from $5.64 billion in Q1 2025 and 61% higher than the previous quarter. The Nigerian economy continues to benefit from macroeconomic reforms, in the form of high interest rates and FX devaluation, that have corrected trade deficits and improved reserves.
However, foreign investors are less convinced about the economy’s long-term growth prospects. This is reflected in the nature of their investments, which tend to be more short-term focused. Nearly 95% of the inflows ($9.86 billion) was portfolio investment, largely short-term money chasing Nigeria’s high interest rates through treasury bills ($6.50 billion) and government bonds ($3.23 billion). Foreign Direct Investment, the kind that builds factories and creates jobs, was just $135 million barely 1.3% of the total.
However, relying heavily on short-term portfolio inflows carries risk. History shows how quickly this money moves in 2025, roughly $5 billion exited Nigeria following the Liberation Day Tariff announcement. The US-Iran conflict that began in April 2026 likely triggered a similar reversal, which partly explains the CBN’s FX market interventions and the softness in external reserves during that period. The recent ceasefire framework, if it holds, should restore investor confidence and support positive net inflows going forward.
Key Takeaway:
- The record inflow is driven primarily by short-term portfolio investment seeking high yields, not long-term capital committed to building businesses. This makes the inflows sensitive to interest rate changes and global risk appetite.
FX Update
Naira Strengthens to Near One-Month High as Reserves Cross $50 Billion
The naira gained ground in the official market this week, closing at ₦1,362.21/$ on June 5, an improvement of ₦11.04 from ₦1,373.25/$ last week. Mid-week, the naira briefly rallied to ₦1,357.26/$, its strongest level in nearly a month.
In the parallel market, the naira weakened to ₦1,398/$ from ₦1,375/$ last week, a depreciation of ₦23. This pushed the parallel market premium to ₦35.79 (2.63%), up sharply from just ₦1.75 (0.13%) last week, a divergence worth monitoring despite healthy official market liquidity.
External reserves crossed the $50 billion mark, reaching $50.037 billion as of June 4 up from $49.34 billion last week. The buildup is driven by sustained oil revenues above the 2026 fiscal benchmark, steady diaspora remittances, and foreign portfolio inflows.
Key Takeaway:
- The naira is stronger in the official market and reserves have crossed $50 billion, both positive signals. However, the parallel market premium has widened from near-zero last week to 2.63% this week, a development worth watching in the coming days.
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Equities Update
NGX Pulls Back as Profit-Taking and T+1 Transition Weigh on the Market
The NGX All-Share Index declined 2.80% last week, pulling the year-to-date return down to 56.40% from 60.90% two weeks ago. The market fell for four consecutive days on the back of profit-taking and the adjustment to a new T+1 settlement cycle, before recovering slightly on Friday as buyers stepped in at lower prices.
Every sector closed lower last week. Oil and Gas’ best performer at +2.53% two weeks ago dropped 5.18% last week, bringing its total gain for the year to 112.33%. Industrial Goods reversed from nearly flat the previous week to fall 4.40% last week with a total year gain of 106.24%. Banking dropped 3.42% this week after falling 2.43% last week, now up 50.25% for the year. Insurance, which gained 1.41% two weeks ago, fell 1.88% last week, up 4.19% for the year. Consumer Goods was the most resilient, slipping 0.73% last week compared to a 1.52% drop two weeks ago, up 22.47% for the year.
Key Takeaway:
- The last two week’s gains gave way to broad selling last week across every sector. The adjustment to T+1 settlement added to the pressure, but buyers returning on Friday suggest the market has not lost its footing. This week will show whether this is a brief pause or the start of a wider correction.
Fixed Income Update
T-Bill Yields Rise Across All Tenors as CBN Mops Up Aggressively
At the June 3 auction, the CBN offered ₦1 trillion across all three tenors, up from ₦650 billion at the previous auction on May 20. Investors submitted ₦2.16 trillion in total bids, a 2.16x oversubscription. To mop up excess liquidity, the CBN over-allotted, raising ₦1.46 trillion in total.
Stop rates rose across all tenors compared to the May 20 auction. The 91-day rate moved up 10 basis points to 16.05%, the 182-day rose 5 basis points to 16.19%, and the 364-day jumped 20 basis points to 16.35%. Investor demand was overwhelmingly concentrated in the 364-day bill, which alone attracted ₦1.95 trillion of the total ₦2.16 trillion in bids.
In the secondary market, the 90-day yield fell to 16.62% from 16.73%, and the 180-day dipped to 17.42% from 17.47%. The 364-day yield rose to 19.52% from 18.73%, a notable jump of 79 basis points, reflecting strong post-auction repricing at the long end. The average benchmark bond yield held flat at 16.02%.
Key Takeaway:
- Investors pushed hard for the 1-year bill and demanded higher rates the CBN accepted, raising stop rates and over-allotting to drain excess liquidity from the system. The 364-day secondary market yield jumping 79 basis points in one week confirms the market has repriced the long end upward.
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Star Spangle Banner
US Markets Open at Record Highs, Close in the Red – Here’s Why
The week started where last week ended with markets at record highs. But a stronger-than-expected US jobs report changed everything. The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, nearly double the 95,000 analyst consensus, keeping the unemployment rate at 4.3%. Wall Street read this as bad news: a hot labour market gives the Fed no reason to cut rates, pushing the 10-year treasury yield above 4.5% and the 30-year above 5%.
Geopolitics added fuel to the fire. Last week’s ceasefire optimism unravelled quickly as Hezbollah rejected the Israel-Lebanon truce, US-Iran peace talks collapsed over frozen assets and uranium demands, and direct military exchanges erupted mid-week, with Iranian drone and missile strikes on Gulf states and US retaliatory airstrikes inside Iran. Oil prices spiked to $96.02/barrel on Wednesday before pulling back to $90.54 by Friday’s close as immediate escalation fears eased and weak Chinese demand data weighed on prices.
The tech sector bore the brunt of the selloff. The Nasdaq plunged 4.68% for the week (now up 10.62% YTD), its sharpest weekly decline in over a year as chipmakers cratered following a weak earnings outlook from Broadcom. The S&P 500 fell 2.59% (up 7.86% YTD), snapping a nine-week winning streak. The Dow Jones was more resilient, slipping just 0.32% (up 5.83% YTD). The MSCI World Index was nearly flat at 0.07% (up 9.43% YTD).
Europe was mixed; the FTSE 100 slipped 0.40% (up 4.40% YTD) while France’s CAC 40 bucked the trend, gaining 0.88% (up 0.84% YTD). Japan’s Nikkei dipped 0.52% but remains up a strong 32.28% YTD.
Key Takeaway:
- A red-hot jobs report removed any near-term hope of rate cuts, Middle East tensions reignited oil price volatility, and chipmakers dragged tech stocks to their worst weekly loss in over a year. What started as a record-breaking week ended in a broad selloff, a reminder that strong economic data and geopolitical uncertainty can quickly overshadow market optimism.
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We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!