MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
April 06, 2026.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Nigeria’s Borrowing Plan Has Nearly Doubled to N29.2 Trillion
Following the approval of the N68.3 trillion 2026 budget, new details show that the government’s borrowing plan has nearly doubled, signalling a significant shift in how this year’s budget will be financed. Nigeria’s total borrowing for 2026 has been revised up to N29.2 trillion, from the N17.89 trillion originally projected in December 2025. That is an increase of N11.31 trillion.
The reason is straightforward. The government plans to spend N68.32 trillion but only expects to earn N36.87 trillion. The gap, called the fiscal deficit, is N31.46 trillion. Borrowing will cover the overwhelming majority of that gap. Other financing sources are relatively small: asset sales and privatisation contribute just N189.16 billion, multilateral and bilateral project loans add N2.05 trillion, grants and aid bring in N1.37 trillion, and special funds contribute N300 billion. Everything else must be borrowed.
Of the N31.46 trillion deficit, N15.81 trillion goes to paying back existing debts. The remaining N15.65 trillion, called the primary deficit, is fresh borrowing just to fund new spending. Nigeria is not simply rolling over old loans. It is borrowing an additional N15.65 trillion on top of that to keep the government running.
So what does this mean for you? For interest rates, the government needs to borrow heavily from the domestic market through bonds and treasury bills. That keeps interest rates elevated, which is why T-bill yields remain high even as the CBN cuts the MPR. For the naira, a rising debt burden and widening deficit put long-term pressure on the exchange rate, particularly if oil revenues disappoint. For the ordinary Nigerian, when nearly half of government revenue goes to debt service, less money is available for viable projects such as; roads, hospitals, schools, and other essential services.
Key Takeaway: Nigeria plans to borrow nearly twice what it originally projected this year because spending has outpaced revenue at every turn. With debt service consuming N15.81 trillion and the primary deficit at N15.65 trillion, the government has very little room for error. Growing revenue, not borrowing more, is the only sustainable path forward.
FX Update
Naira Strengthens in Official Market but Weakens in Parallel Market. Reserves Fall to $48.85 Billion
The naira had a split week. In the official NFEM window, it strengthened, closing at approximately N1,361.75 per dollar on Friday April 10, compared to N1,378.70 the prior week. That is a gain of about N17, or a 1.2% appreciation week-on-week in the official market.
The parallel market moved in the opposite direction. Bureau De Change operators were quoting the dollar between N1,450 and N1,470 by the end of the week, up sharply from N1,410 to N1,415 the week before. The spread between the official and parallel rates has widened from N32 last week to approximately N90 to N108 this week. When this gap widens quickly, it means demand for dollars in the broader economy is running ahead of official supply, and that is a signal worth watching closely.
The latest CBN data shows gross external reserves fell to $48.85 billion as of April 9, down from $49.50 billion the prior week. That is a decline of approximately $650 million in seven days. Since peaking at $50.02 billion on March 11, reserves have been falling steadily, a total drop of over $1.1 billion in less than a month. Three things are driving this: Nigeria is making regular payments on its foreign debts, the CBN has been selling dollars to keep the naira stable, and foreign investors have slowed down bringing money into Nigeria because the Iran war has made them nervous about investing in markets like ours.
Key Takeaway: The naira gained ground in the official market this week, but the parallel market is showing signs of strain, with the spread widening sharply from N32 to over N90. Reserves have also been falling every single day since March 11, driven by debt repayments, CBN dollar sales, and slowing foreign investor inflows. Neither the widening spread nor the reserve decline is alarming yet, but both are moving in the wrong direction and deserve close attention.
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Equities Update
Banks Lead the Charge as FTSE Russell Shifts the Goalposts for Nigerian Equities
Nigerian equities had a positive week. The All-Share Index rose 1.03% to close at 203,770.43 points, pushing the year-to-date return to 30.95%. Investors came back from Easter with appetite, total turnover jumped 34% from ₦113.6 billion last week to ₦151.9 billion this week, confirming the holiday was a pause not a retreat.
Banking was the standout sector, surging 5.10% for the week, its best weekly performance this year, bringing its month-to-date gain to 8.62% and year-to-date return to 33.33%, driven by two clear catalysts. The first was FTSE Russell’s announcement on April 7 reclassifying Nigeria from “Unclassified” back to “Frontier Market” status, effective September 2026. A development that immediately triggered buying in stocks expected to enter the index. The second was investors positioning for the strong dividends being declared by various banks.
Oil & Gas gained 2.67% for the week, extending its extraordinary year-to-date return to 68.34%, the best performing sector on the exchange by a wide margin. Consumer Goods recovered 1.10% after last week’s 1.74% drop, while Industrial Goods added 0.80%. Insurance continued to drag, shedding another 3.64% for the week.
The most significant development of the week was not a share price move. FTSE Russell announced the reclassification of Nigeria from “Unclassified” back to “Frontier Market” status, effective September 2026, ending more than two years of exclusion from its indices. This matters because funds that track FTSE Frontier Market indices are required to hold the stocks within those indices. From September, index-tracking foreign funds that currently cannot invest in Nigerian equities by mandate will be able to, and some will be required to. For a market that has already gained over 30% this year, this is a structural catalyst that could sustain demand well into the second half of 2026.
Key Takeaway: A solid week with Banking leading the charge. But the FTSE Russell reclassification is the headline. It opens Nigeria’s market to a new pool of foreign capital that has been locked out for over two years. The September effective date gives investors time to position ahead of the inflows.
Fixed Income Update
Rates Fall Again at April 8 Auction as N2.95 Trillion Floods Into T-Bills. Secondary Market Follows
The CBN held its first treasury bill auction of Q2 on April 8, and demand was overwhelming. Investors submitted a total of N2.95 trillion across all three tenors against a N700 billion offer. The 364-day bill alone attracted N2.63 trillion in bids against N500 billion on offer. The CBN allotted N549.5 billion at a stop rate of 16.199%. The 182-day bill drew N227.9 billion in subscriptions against a N100 billion offer, with a stop rate of 16.19%. The 91-day bill was the only undersubscribed tenor, attracting N96.8 billion against N100 billion on offer, stopping at 15.95%.
Compared to the last auction on March 25, the direction is clearly downward. The 364-day stop rate fell 23 basis points from 16.43% to 16.199%, and the 182-day dropped the same 23 basis points from 16.42% to 16.19%. The 91-day rate held unchanged at 15.95%. The CBN is consistently cutting rates at the long end while keeping the short end stable, a deliberate signal that it intends to bring borrowing costs down gradually.
The scale of demand for the 364-day bill says everything. Investors are not confused about where rates are going. They are going lower, and everyone is trying to lock in today’s yields before that happens. More than N2 trillion in bids were rejected. That cash will now flow into the secondary market, pushing yields lower still.
In the secondary market, the downward drift continued for the week ending April 7. The 364-day NTB yielded 19.03%, down from 19.08% the prior week. The 182-day bill eased to 17.89% from 17.93%, and the 91-day bill dipped to 16.62% from 16.66%. The average benchmark FGN bond yield remained steady at 15.60%, unchanged week-on-week, suggesting the bond market has largely priced in the current easing cycle.
Key Takeaway: N2.63 trillion chasing N500 billion of 364-day bills is the clearest signal yet that the market expects rates to keep falling. If you have short-to-medium-term savings goals, the window for locking in elevated yields is closing. The next auction on April 22 will show how far the CBN is willing to push rates lower.
You can invest in treasury bills for short-term goals — rent, school fees, and more, through Ladda. For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income is not suitable due to inflation and currency risks.
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
Global Markets Post Best Week Since November. Iran Ceasefire Drives Historic Rally, But Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed
Global equities had their best week since November. The MSCI World Index gained 2.39% for the week, bringing its year-to-date return to 1.07%. The driver was a single event: the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran on April 8, brokered by Pakistan, and reached barely an hour before President Trump’s self-imposed deadline to attack Iran.
The week started on edge. Trump threatened on Sunday to destroy Iranian power plants and infrastructure, prompting the United Nations to warn that targeting civilian infrastructure would violate international law. Markets opened Monday under pressure. Then on Wednesday, Trump announced the ceasefire, sending shockwaves through global markets. Oil, the single biggest driver of market sentiment since the war began, collapsed. Brent crude fell 13.29% in a single session to $94.75 per barrel, its largest single-day drop since April 2020. WTI fell 16.41% to $94.41. Stocks surged globally as investors priced in the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening and oil supply returning to normal.
By the end of the week however, the ceasefire was already showing cracks. Israel continued attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, prompting Iran to temporarily halt Strait of Hormuz traffic in response. By April 9, there was no clear sign the Strait had fully reopened. Oil partially recovered, with Brent ending the week around $98 and WTI above $96.
In the US, the S&P 500 gained 3.6% for the week to close at 6,816.89, its best weekly performance since November, bringing its year-to-date return to 0.42%. The Nasdaq rose 4.7% to close at 22,902.89, year-to-date now 1.46%. The Dow Jones added 3.0% to close at 47,916.57, year-to-date 0.31%. European markets outperformed, with the FTSE 100 surging 4.70%, year-to-date 6.74%, and the CAC 40 gaining 3.48%, bringing its year-to-date return to 1.35%. Europe’s bigger bounce reflects the continent’s greater dependence on Middle Eastern energy. Japan’s Nikkei had a volatile week, gaining 6.57% for the week, with a year-to-date return of 13.08%, the strongest of all major indices tracked.
Key Takeaway: The ceasefire drove the biggest single-day rally in a year, but the Strait of Hormuz is still largely closed and both sides are already disputing the terms. Oil remains well above pre-war levels at $98. The two-week ceasefire window ends in late April, and negotiations in Islamabad will determine whether this is a genuine turning point or just another temporary pause in a conflict that has rattled global markets for six weeks.
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We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!