MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
March 16, 2026.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Nigeria’s Merchandise Trade Surplus Fell by 70.8% in Q4 2025
Nigeria’s merchandise trade surplus, which is the difference between exports and imports, fell by 70.8% to N1.7tn in Q4 2025 from N5.9tn in Q3 2025, the lowest level since Q3 2023. This was driven by a contraction in exports by 16.9% to ₦18.96 trillion while imports slightly rose 1.7% to ₦17.25 trillion.
The reduced exports was driven by a 3.7% decline in oil production to 1.58 million barrels per day while oil prices fell 10.0% to an average of $64.2 per barrel.
Looking at the entire 2025, Nigeria’s external trade expanded strongly. The trade surplus increased 5.5% to N17.8tn as exports increased by 9.9% to ₦85.1tn while imports grew faster at 11.2% to ₦67.3tn. The expansion in imports suggests that consumers and businesses are gradually recovering from the naira devaluation.
Noteworthy, non crude oil exports expanded by 70.0%, increasing its contribution to total exports from 28.7% in 2024 to 44.3% in 2025. This was driven by a 94.0% growth in other oil exports, such as gas and refined petroleum products. Similarly, non-oil exports rose by 35.9% as the export of raw materials expanded by 122% to N4.1tn.
Looking ahead to Q1 2026, the weakness in oil production so far is a key risk, which can be partly offset by rising oil prices due to the war in the Middle-East. A sustained reduction in trade surplus would trigger renewed pressure on external reserves and the naira.
Key Takeaway:
- Nigeria maintained a trade surplus in Q4 2025, but the margin narrowed to ₦1.71 trillion as exports declined and imports increased. A sustained reduction in trade surplus would trigger renewed pressure on external reserves and the naira.
FX Update
Naira Softens Slightly as Dollar Demand Remains Strong
The naira weakened slightly against the US dollar this week as demand for foreign currency remained strong across the market. At the official window of the Central Bank of Nigeria (NFEM), the naira closed at ₦1,366.23/$1 on Friday, March 13, 2026, compared to ₦1,363/$1 the previous Friday.
The pressure was more visible in the parallel market. Last week, the dollar traded around ₦1,380–₦1,390/$1, but this week it moved higher to about ₦1,405–₦1,415/$1. The widening gap reflects strong demand for dollars outside the official market, he particularly from individuals and businesses that cannot easily access foreign exchange through banks.
On a positive note, the external reserves increased to $50.0bn as at March 11, 2026, the highest level since January 2009.
While oil exports have suffered since Q4 2025, increased capital flows from foreign investors investing in attractive money market securities, such as the CBN’s OMO bills, have supported the gains in external reserves. The main risk to the growth in external reserves and the stability in the exchange rate is sustained lower crude oil production and a worsening of tensions in the Middle-East which could trigger capital outflows.
Key Takeaway:
- The naira softened slightly this week mainly because demand for dollars remains strong. The main risk to the growth in external reserves and the stability in the exchange rate is sustained lower crude oil production and a worsening of tensions in the Middle-East which could trigger capital outflows.
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda. Just visit www.getladda.com to download. You can also earn up to 8% for dollars saving and 20% by investing in naira savings.
Equities Update
Nigerian Stock Market Edges Higher as Oil & Gas Stocks Lead the Week
The Nigerian stock market closed the week slightly higher as investors continued to buy into a few key sectors. The benchmark NGX All-Share Index on the Nigerian Exchange Limited rose 0.73% week-on-week, closing at 198,407.30 points, up from 196,968.15 points recorded the previous week. The market has now returned about 27% year-to-date, showing how strongly equities have performed since the beginning of the year.
The biggest gains during the week came from the oil and gas sector, where the index rose about 9.43%. This was driven by strong buying interest in energy stocks such as Conoil Plc, which gained 20.95% during the week.
The industrial goods sector also recorded strong growth, with the sector index rising around 3.89%, supported largely by demand for cement producers like BUA Cement Plc, whose share price climbed 20.00%.
The banking sector posted a smaller but positive gain of about 0.24%, reflecting steady investor interest in large financial institutions as investors position ahead of corporate earnings and ongoing banking sector developments.
However, the gains were not broad across the entire market. The consumer goods sector declined slightly by about 0.09%, while the insurance sector was the weakest performer during the week. Stocks such as SCOA Nigeria Plc, Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc and Fortis Global Insurance Plc recorded notable declines, pulling the sector lower.
Overall, the market’s movement shows that investors are becoming more selective, focusing on sectors where earnings growth and strong fundamentals are expected.
Key Takeaway:
- The Nigerian stock market continues to move higher in 2026, but gains are increasingly concentrated in a few sectors such as oil and gas, industrial goods, and banking. For investors, this means opportunities are still present in the market, but stock selection is becoming more important than simply following the broader index.
Fixed Income Update
Strong Demand at Auction Shifts T-Bill Yields in Secondary Market
Investors showed strong interest in Nigeria’s treasury bills at last week’s CBN auction. Only ₦850 billion was on offer, but bids reached ₦2.78 trillion, with the 364-day bill getting the most attention at ₦2.57 trillion. Auction rates stayed mostly the same, with the 91-day at 15.95%, 182-day at 16.65%, and 364-day at 16.72%.
After the auction, trading in the secondary market caused some changes in yields. The 91-day bill stayed at 16.30%, the 182-day rose from 17.04% to 17.72%, the 364-day Treasury bill rate declined to 19.61% from 21.58% recorded in the previous week. The bigger rise on the 182-day shows that investors wanted higher returns for medium-term bills, while the drop on the 364-day reflects some profit-taking after last week’s heavy buying.
Key Takeaway:
- Even when auction rates stay steady, the secondary market shows how investors adjust their portfolios. T-bills remain attractive, but watching yield changes can help investors get the best returns.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
Global Markets Slide as Oil Surges Amid Middle East Tensions
Last week, global markets weakened as tensions in the Middle East escalated, particularly the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Rising concerns about disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key trading route for the world’s oil, pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel. Higher energy costs added pressure to inflation expectations and weighed on stock markets worldwide.
In the United States, major indexes fell as investors reacted to higher oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty. The S&P 500 closed at 6,830, down 0.6% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 47,954, down 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite finished at 22,749, down 0.9%. Most sectors recorded losses, with consumer discretionary, industrials, and materials under pressure, while technology stocks held up relatively better.
European markets also moved lower. The FTSE 100 closed at 10,261.15, down 0.43% for the week. The DAX ended at 23,447.29, down 0.60%. The CAC 40 finished at 7,911.53, down 0.91%. Industrial and financial stocks led the declines, while defensive sectors such as utilities and health care showed more resilience as investors remained cautious amid higher costs and geopolitical risks.
In Asia, markets were subdued. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed at 53,820, down 1.2% for the week. Other regional indexes also recorded declines as investors reacted to rising energy costs and slower global growth, reflecting a broad risk‑off sentiment.
Amid the market volatility, investors sought safer assets. The US dollar strengthened. Gold prices rose. Demand for government bonds increased as traders moved toward lower‑risk positions.
Key Takeaway:
- Rising oil prices and Middle East tensions created a cautious global market environment last week. Markets remain cautious due to rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions. Investors are favouring safer assets and monitoring developments in the Middle East closely.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!