MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
January 26, 2026.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
IMF Upgrades Nigeria’s Growth in 2026 to 4.4%
Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2026, up from 4.2% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2024 according to the IMF. While this may not feel dramatic, the direction matters. It shows steady improvement, not decline.
This signals stabilisation rather than a boom. Nigeria is gradually finding its footing after years of high inflation, currency pressure, and fiscal strain. The IMF’s upgrade suggests that recent reforms are beginning to take effect, even though everyday challenges remain visible.
The Fund also notes that Nigeria’s outlook fits into a broader recovery across sub-Saharan Africa, where growth is expected to remain strong through 2026 and 2027. This matters because investors often assess regional trends when making allocation decisions.
Globally, growth is expected to stay moderate at about 3.3% in 2026, weighed down by trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks. In that context, Nigeria’s growth outlook is relatively encouraging, though still fragile.
Energy prices remain a key factor. The global energy prices is expected to fall slightly in 2026, which could help ease inflationary pressure. However, oil prices may stay supported by production controls and demand from countries like China. For Nigeria, this means oil revenues could remain stable, but they are still exposed to global shocks.
Despite the improved outlook, there are these risks which include geopolitical tensions, renewed trade restrictions, and Nigeria’s high public debt burden. Debt servicing continues to consume a large share of government revenue, limiting spending on infrastructure, health, and education.
Nigeria is not in crisis, but it is also not yet comfortable. Growth is improving, but it depends on consistent policies, fiscal discipline, and currency stability. Sudden policy reversals or global shocks could quickly change the picture.
Key Takeaway:
- If Nigeria maintains policy consistency and continues strengthening its economic foundations, 2026 could mark the start of a more resilient growth phase. For long-term investors, this environment rewards patience, diversification, and a focus on fundamentals rather than short-term speculation.
FX Update
Nigeria’s FX Market Remains Stable Despite Mild Naira Weakness
Last week, the Nigerian naira slightly depreciated against the US dollar. In the official market, the exchange rate improved to ₦1,422 per dollar, up from ₦1,418 in the previous week. In the parallel market, the naira also depreciated slightly to the dollar at ₦1,491 from ₦1,480 last week.
Nigeria’s external reserves have surpassed $46 billion for the first time in nearly eight years, reflecting steady reserve accumulation since 2025. The last time reserves were at this level was August 27, 2018, when they stood at $45.9 billion.
With reserves now around $46 billion, the Central Bank’s medium-term target of $51 billion by the end of 2026 appears increasingly achievable.
This improvement is being supported by higher oil revenues, planned sovereign bond issuances, and stronger diaspora remittance inflows. In addition, the Dangote Refinery’s expansion to 700,000 barrels per day is expected to further strengthen foreign exchange inflows.
Key Takeaway:
- Nigeria’s slight naira depreciation is not a crisis signal, especially with external reserves above $46bn providing a strong buffer and improving macro stability. Investors should stay diversified, earning yield in naira while gradually building dollar exposure, rather than making panic-driven decisions based on short-term FX movements.
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda. Just visit www.getladda.com to download. You can also earn up to 20% by investing in naira savings.
Equities Update
Nigerian Stock Market Dips as Investors Rebalance Portfolios.
The Nigerian equities market closed the week on a softer note, with the All-Share Index declining by 0.39%, trimming year-to-date returns to 6.36%. The pullback reflects sector-specific profit-taking rather than a broad-based loss of investor confidence.
Banking stocks were the major drag, shedding 1.32% following sell-offs in heavyweight names such as Fidelity Bank, UBA, and Zenith Bank. This correction comes despite positive structural developments in the sector, notably Fidelity Bank Plc’s elevation to Tier-1 status after the successful completion of its capital-raising programme, suggesting the weakness is more valuation-driven than fundamentally driven.
The consumer goods sector recorded the steepest decline, down 2.02%, pressured by notable losses in Honeywell Flour and Dangote Sugar. Industrial goods eased marginally by 0.08%, while the insurance sector dipped by 0.10%, reflecting cautious positioning across defensive sectors.
In contrast, the oil and gas sector stood out as the sole outperformer, advancing by 1.36% over the week, supported by selective buying interest and improving earnings expectations amid a relatively stable energy outlook.
Overall, the market’s performance points to short-term rebalancing rather than a reversal of the broader recovery trend, with investors increasingly selective and sector-focused in their positioning.
Key Takeaway:
- The recent market dip is largely sector-specific profit-taking rather than a broad downturn, so investors should stay calm and focus on quality stocks with strong fundamentals.
Fixed Income Update
Mixed Trends in Treasury Bill Yields
Nigeria’s treasury bill rates moved in different directions last week. Short-term treasury bills, which run for about 3 to 6 months, were mostly stable. The 91-day rate increased slightly to 16.73%, while the 182-day rate dipped a little to 17.60%. This shows that investors are still comfortable with short-term investments.
However, the one-year (364-day) treasury bill saw a bigger jump in returns, rising to 21.43% from 19.67%. In simple terms, investors are asking to earn more interest before tying their money down for a longer period, mainly due to inflation concerns and uncertainty about future economic conditions.
Key Takeaway:
- Overall, short-term government investments remain steady, while long-term options are now offering much higher returns. For everyday investors, this means one-year treasury bills are becoming more attractive for those who can leave their money untouched for longer and want higher income, while shorter-term options are better for flexibility.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
Mixed Global Market Performance as Investors Remain Cautious
U.S. equities were mixed on Friday, with the Nasdaq extending gains while the Dow lagged. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.28% to 23,501, led by Nvidia (+1.5%), AMD (+2%), and Microsoft, supported by reports that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang plans to visit China. Meanwhile, the Dow fell 0.58% to 49,099, pressured by a nearly 4% drop in Goldman Sachs, while Intel plunged 17% after issuing a disappointing quarterly outlook.
Earlier in the week, all three major indexes rebounded on easing trade tensions and geopolitical risks. President Trump’s cancellation of threatened tariffs on eight European nations and talks with NATO on Greenland boosted investor sentiment. While the midweek gains erased earlier losses, Friday’s drop left the Dow down 0.5% for the week, the S&P 500 off 0.4%, and the Nasdaq slightly negative, marking consecutive weekly declines for the broader market.
Market performance around the world was mixed for the week ended. The S&P 500 declined by 0.65%, FTSE 100 in the UK went down by 0.90%, France’s CAC 40 rose by 0.22%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose by 0.29%. The MSCI World Index declined by 0.22% for this week.
Key Takeaway:
- Investors should remain diversified and selective, as market leadership is narrow and driven largely by big tech while broader equities show signs of fatigue. In the near term, a focus on quality assets, disciplined risk management, and patience amid headline-driven volatility is advisable.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!