MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
January 5, 2026.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Nigeria Records $4.6bn Balance-of-Payments Surplus
Nigeria returned to a balance-of-payments surplus during the 3rd quarter of 2025, meaning foreign inflows exceeded outflows with a surplus of $4.6 billion. This reversal from the previous quarter suggests a gradual strengthening of the country’s external fundamentals.
One of the most encouraging developments was the improvement in export earnings. Crude oil exports increased to $8.45 billion, supported by better output and pricing. More importantly, exports of refined petroleum products rose sharply to $2.29 billion, pointing to the growing impact of domestic refining capacity, particularly the 650,000 barrel per-day Dangote Refinery. This marks a meaningful step in Nigeria’s transition from importing fuel to exporting refined products.
At the same time, imports of refined fuel declined by 12.7%, easing pressure on foreign-exchange demand. Given how significantly fuel imports have historically strained Nigeria’s external accounts, this shift is especially important.
Another steady source of support continues to be from foreign investors with remittances accounting for $5.24 billion. Inflows from foreign investors remain strong and increasingly play a critical role in diversifying foreign-exchange sources beyond oil.
These factors contributed to an increase in external reserves, strengthening the Central Bank’s ability to support the naira and meet external obligations.
Nigeria’s Q3 performance reflects early but tangible benefits of ongoing reforms, particularly in the foreign-exchange market. While challenges remain, the direction of travel is improving, and the data suggests growing resilience in the external sector.
Key Takeaway:
- Nigeria’s return to a balance-of-payments surplus signals improving external stability, supported by stronger exports, rising remittances, and reduced fuel import pressure. For investors, this points to cautious optimism, favouring long-term, selective investments in sectors benefiting from FX reforms and domestic production growth.
FX Update
Naira Ends 2025 Strong, Sets Tone for FX Stability in 2026
Nigeria’s foreign reserves reached $45.5 billion as of December 31, 2025, after eight days of steady growth. According to the 2026 CBN Macroeconomic outlook external reserve is expected to rise to $51 billion in 2026, supported by higher oil earnings, foreign investor flows, government foreign bond sales, and money sent home by Nigerians living abroad.
The naira strengthened last week, closing at ₦1,431 per US dollar in the official market, up from ₦1,460 the previous week. In the parallel market, the dollar stayed at ₦1,475, showing stability despite continued demand.
Overall, the naira ended 2025 at ₦1,429/$1, a 7.4% gain compared to ₦1,535/$1 at the end of 2024. This is the first yearly gain for the naira since 2012, signalling improved stability for Nigeria’s currency.
Key Takeaway:
- Nigeria’s naira strengthened by 7.4% in 2025, reflecting a shift toward greater FX market stability and giving cautious optimism for 2026. External reserves are projected to rise to $51 billion, supported by oil earnings, sovereign bonds, and diaspora remittances, creating a more predictable environment for investments. Overall, a stronger naira and higher reserves offer investors and businesses greater confidence for planning and growth.
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda. Just visit www.getladda.com to download. You can also earn up to 20% by investing in naira savings.
Equities Update
Nigerian Stock Market Kicks Off 2026 on a Strong Note After Record 2025
The Nigerian stock market had an exceptional year in 2025, recording a return of 51.19%, its best performance since 2007. This strong growth was mainly driven by companies in consumer goods, insurance, and industrial sectors, with some stocks more than doubling in value.
The positive momentum has continued into 2026. In the first trading week ending January 2, 2026, the overall market rose by 1.92%. This growth was largely supported by gains in banking, consumer goods, and insurance stocks.
Banking stocks performed particularly well, rising by 2.96%, helped by strong price increases in Accesscorp, Zenith Bank, UBA, Wema Bank, GTCO, and First HoldCo. These banks were some of the biggest contributors to the market’s weekly growth.
The consumer goods sector also had a strong week, gaining 3.44%, driven by companies like PZ, Honeywell Plc, and Dangote Sugar, supported by increased holiday spending.
The industrial goods sector recorded modest growth of 0.82%, while the insurance sector stood out as the best performer, rising by 5.93%.
The oil and gas sector saw a small increase of 1.19%, although some stocks, such as Seplat Energy, declined during the week.
Overall, the market started 2026 on a positive note, showing continued investor confidence across key sectors.
Key Takeaway:
- The strong market performance is encouraging, but investors should focus on fundamentally strong companies, diversify across sectors, and avoid chasing hype. A long-term, disciplined approach with proper risk management is key to benefiting from market growth.
Fixed Income Update
Mixed Trends in Treasury Bill Yields
In the first week of January 2026, Nigeria’s treasury bill rates showed mixed movements. Yields on short-term treasury bills, like the 91-day and 182-day options, recorded slight increases, from 16.19% to 16.46% and 17.26% to 17.67% respectively. meaning the government is now offering a bit more interest to investors for three to six months.
On the other hand, the 364-day treasury bill, which runs for one year, saw a drop in its rate, from 20.09% to 19.27%. This suggests that while short-term borrowing costs are rising slightly, the rates are easing, possibly reflecting expectations of improved liquidity and lower interest rates later in the year.
Key Takeaway:
- Rising short-term treasury bill rates make 91-day and 182-day bills attractive for investors seeking safe, flexible returns. However, the drop in one-year rates suggests it may be better to stay liquid rather than lock in long-term rates now.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
US Stocks Start 2026 on a Positive Note
US stocks started 2026 on a positive note. On the first trading day of the year, the S&P 500 ended slightly higher, helped mainly by strong gains in semiconductor (chip-making) companies. This was a good start compared to recent years, as the S&P 500 had fallen on the first trading day for the past three years.
Chip companies like Nvidia and Micron performed very well. Nvidia rose by over 1%, while Micron jumped more than 10%. These companies have benefited greatly from the growing use of artificial intelligence and were among the top performers in 2025.
However, not all tech stocks did well. Software companies such as Salesforce and CrowdStrike fell, and shares of Microsoft and Palantir also declined. Tesla’s stock dropped by more than 2% after the company reported lower-than-expected vehicle deliveries.
Looking ahead, analysts expect the market to keep rising in 2026, but in a more balanced way. This means gains may come not just from big tech companies, but also from other areas like banks and consumer-focused businesses. Many experts believe there are strong investment opportunities beyond technology this year.
Market performance around the world was mixed for the week ended. The FTSE 100 in the UK rose by 0.63%, France’s CAC 40 rose 1.06%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 went down by 0.37%. The MSCI World Index fell 0.63% for this week.
Key Takeaway:
- As the year begins, investors should diversify beyond big tech, focusing on growth opportunities in AI chips, Energy, Banks, and consumer-focused businesses to build a balanced portfolio. Global diversification and careful stock selection are key, as not all tech or AI-related companies will perform equally.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!