MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
December 8, 2025.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Nigeria’s Economy Grows 3.98% in Q3 2025
Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.98% in Q3 2025, slightly below the 4.23% growth recorded in Q2 2025. This was driven by a sharp slowdown in oil sector growth to 5.8% from 20.5% in Q2 2025 following a reduction in crude oil production by 40,000 barrels per day to 1.64 million barrels per day.
However, non-oil sector growth improved to 3.9% in Q3 2025 from 3.6% in Q2 2025, supported by a strong growth recovery in agriculture at 3.8% from 2.8% in the previous quarter. The trade, construction and finance and insurance sectors also grew at a faster pace in Q3 2025.
Notably, the improved growth performance in the non-oil sector was uneven. The ICT, manufacturing and real estate sectors grew slower than the prior quarter.
The weakness in the manufacturing sector remains a major concern as growth is stuck below 2% over the past eight quarters. Without a strong manufacturing growth, Nigeria would struggle to develop its value chains, create employment and boost exports.
Similarly, the current pace of growth is still insufficient to improve living standards from the current $1,021 per capita income from $2,139 in 2022.
Key Takeaways:
- Nigeria’s growth in Q3 2025 was weaker than in the prior quarter due to a sharp contraction in the oil sector.
- Manufacturing sector growth remains stuck below 2%, which lowers the prospects for strong exports and job creation.
FX Update
Naira Weakens Despite CBN’s Dollar Sales
The naira traded weaker at ₦1,454.00/$ from ₦1,446.9/$ in the previous week in the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) despite $100m+ in dollar sales by the CBN. In the parallel market, the naira also depreciated to ₦1,465.00/$, compared with ₦1,460.00/$ the week before.
However, Nigeria’s external reserves remain strong. The reserves reached a new peak of US $45.0bn from $44.7bn last week. This gives the CBN the necessary firepower to support the currency in the interim.
Key Takeaway:
- The naira remains generally stable and rising external reserves continue to back the currency, giving the CBN the ability to manage market pressures effectively.
Remember to save dollar-based goals in dollars, which can be done with apps like Ladda. Just visit www.getladda.com to download. You can also earn up to 20% by investing in naira savings.
Equities Update
NGX Market Rises by 2.45%
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) stock market rose by 2.45% this week, bouncing back after last week’s 0.50% decline.
The Industrial Goods sector led the gains with 7.38%, followed by Banking at 3.20% and Consumer Goods at 1.56%. Oil and Gas fell slightly by 0.57%, while Insurance dipped 0.30%.
The market also saw more activity this week. Ecobank (ETI) and Industrial & Medical Gases (IMG) added new shares. ETI’s increase came from its capital strengthening plan, where the bank issues small batches of shares to meet regulatory requirements. IMG’s addition was linked to its employee share incentive and routine compliance adjustments.
For investors, this means slight dilution and signals that both companies are making internal capital changes.
Key Takeaway:
- The NGX had a strong week with a 2.45% gain, mainly supported by big gains in the Industrial Goods and Banking sectors.
Fixed Income Update
Treasury Bill Yields Rise as DMO Allots ₦709.62 Billion
The Nigeria Treasury Bills market shifted this week after the DMO raised ₦709.62 billion across the 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day papers. Demand was strongest on the 364-day bill, showing that investors still prefer locking in higher yields for a longer period, especially with inflation expected to moderate.
In the latest Treasury bill auction, the 91‑day bill cleared at 15.83% and the 182‑day at 16.86%, unchanged from the previous auction. The 364‑day bill offered 20.78%, reflecting the higher return for lending money for a year.
In the secondary market, short and medium-term bills stayed near these rates, while longer-term 364‑day bills traded slightly lower as investors adjusted to the higher rate. The auction helped keep the market steady and highlighted demand for longer-dated bills.
Key Takeaway:
- Short and medium-term bills remained stable, while the 364-day bill attracted strong interest, shaping trading in the secondary market.
You can invest in treasury bills to save for your short-term goal on rent, schools, fees, etc. through Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
Markets Open December Cautiously as Economic Data Looms
Global markets started December 2025 cautiously, reversing some optimism from November. Investors are watching whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates. Expectations of a rate cut are high, but the Fed lacks recent labour and inflation data because the government shutdown cancelled the October reports. This makes it harder to assess the economy’s current state.
Markets are still pricing in a potential rate cut, though uncertainty remains. All eyes are now on November’s jobs and inflation data, which will give a clearer view of the US economy and Fed policy direction.
Global Market Snapshot:
The Dow Jones fell 0.9%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.5%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.4%. In Europe, the FTSE 100 declined 0.45%, while the CAC 40 fell around 0.3%.
Energy stocks outperformed, while technology, crypto-linked, and other high-volatility sectors lagged. Utilities, health care, and industrials were relatively stable, and financials were mixed.
Key Takeaway:
- Markets are entering December with caution. The upcoming economic data and interest rate decision would shape sentiment going forward.
Remember to always save for your dollar goals in dollars. You can do this with us on Ladda—a fintech app that helps you save at high returns.
We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!