MoneyAfrica| Investment Research
Weekly Market Commentary
November 17, 2025.
Good morning, readers, and welcome to this week’s edition of our stock market newsletter!
As always, our newsletter is divided into two sections: Green White Green, covering the Nigerian stock market, and the Star-Spangled Banner, focusing on the US market.
Green White Green Recap
Macro Update
Senate Approves ₦1.15 Trillion Domestic Loan to Close 2025 Budget Gap
The Nigerian Senate has approved the Federal Government’s request to borrow ₦1.15 trillion domestically as part of efforts to close the 2025 budget deficit. The 2025 budget—estimated at ₦29.91 trillion—includes projected revenue of about ₦18.32 trillion, leaving a deficit of ₦11.59 trillion that must be financed through borrowing and other sources.
The newly approved ₦1.15 trillion is part of the domestic component of that financing plan. The approval is coming late in the year because the government has been adjusting its borrowing programme, balancing weaker-than-expected revenue inflows and delays in securing legislative approval for parts of the financing framework. As spending pressures continue, especially on personnel costs, interest payments, and subsidies that remain in the system, the government has had to seek additional borrowing to keep its operations running and fund ongoing commitments.
While domestic borrowing helps the government avoid exchange rate risks associated with external loans, it also increases the cost of debt servicing, which already takes up a large share of federal revenue. The effectiveness of this borrowing will depend on whether the funds are used to support priority projects, improve revenue collection, and reduce the country’s reliance on debt to fund recurring expenses.
Key Takeaways:
- The ₦1.15 trillion loan is part of efforts to close an ₦11.59 trillion deficit in the 2025 budget, driven by lower-than-expected revenue and high spending obligations.
- Late approval reflects delays in revenue performance and the financing plan, forcing the government to revise its borrowing needs as the year ends.
FX Update
Naira Slightly Weakens Despite Rising Reserves
The naira experienced a mild weakening last week despite continued improvements in Nigeria’s external reserves and stronger foreign exchange inflows.
At the official market (NFEM), the currency closed at ₦1,442.43/$, slightly weaker than ₦1,436.57/$ earlier in the week. In the parallel market, it traded at ₦1,458/$, compared to ₦1,455/$ the previous week, reflecting similar softening.
Meanwhile, external reserves rose to $43.427 billion, the highest level in six years, supported by improved foreign investor participation and expected to grow further following the recent $2.35 billion Eurobond issuance. The steady build-up in reserves provides the country with stronger foreign exchange buffers to manage market pressures, meet external obligations, and support the currency, even as short-term fluctuations persist.
Key Takeaway:
- Nigeria’s reserves have climbed to a six-year high, strengthening FX buffers, although the naira still posted a slight weakening across markets last week.
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Equities Update
NGX Declines by 1.68% Amid CGT-Induced Volatility, Recovers After Policy Clarification
The Nigerian equities market closed the week ended November 14, 2025, with the NGX All-Share Index falling by 1.68%, following sharp volatility triggered by investor concerns over proposed changes to the Capital Gains Tax (CGT).
The sell-off intensified mid-week as investors reacted to uncertainty around how share disposals would be taxed in 2026. Sentiment, however, improved after Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, clarified that gains on assets accrued up to December 31, 2025, would still be taxed under the existing 10% CGT structure. He also confirmed that the new system—introducing progressive CGT rates from 0 to 30%—would apply from January 1, 2026, with exemptions for disposals below ₦150 million in annual proceeds or gains under ₦10 million, as well as reinvestments into Nigerian equities within 12 months.
Following this clarification, the market staged a partial recovery, although sector performance remained mixed. The Consumer Goods sector gained 0.46%, supported by renewed bargain hunting, while Insurance advanced by 2.42% and Banking rose 1.26%. In contrast, Industrial Goods dropped sharply by 6.97%, and Oil and Gas declined 0.85%. Despite the weekly pullback, the market remains significantly positive year-to-date with a 42.83% gain, reflecting strong underlying sentiment across key sectors.
Key Takeaways:
- The NGX experienced a mid-week sell-off driven by uncertainty surrounding new CGT rules, but recovered after clear policy communication restored investor confidence.
- Despite closing the week down 1.68%, the market remains strongly positive year-to-date at 42.83%, supported by broad resilience across major sectors.
Fixed Income Update
Treasury Bills Auction Shows Strong Demand as Yields Ease
The latest Nigerian Treasury Bills auction held on November 5, 2025 recorded strong investor demand, with total subscriptions exceeding ₦1.18 trillion against the ₦650 billion offered. Stop rates were largely stable compared to the previous auction on October 22: the 91-day and 182-day tenors remained unchanged at 15.30% and 15.50%, while the 364-day bill eased slightly to ~16.04% from 16.14%, reflecting mild downward pressure at the longer end.
Activity filtered into the secondary market as investors positioned ahead of upcoming inflation and policy data. The 91-day T-bill yield in the secondary market inched up to 16.31% (from 16.23%), while the 182-day and 364-day yields declined to 16.76% (from 17.23%) and 17.98% (from 18.59%) respectively. Demand for longer-tenor T-bills contributed to a general easing in yields, with the average T-bill yield closing about 20 bps lower at roughly 17.02%. Benchmark FGN bond yields also softened slightly, ending the week at 15.49% compared to 15.56% previously.
Overall, the auction’s strong demand, coupled with expectations for key economic data releases, helped anchor yields across the curve and supported active buying interest in the secondary market.
Key Takeaways:
- Strong subscription levels signalled high liquidity and firm demand for risk-free assets.
- Secondary market yields eased as investors bought longer-tenor T-bills ahead of inflation and policy data.
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For long-term goals, naira-denominated fixed income instruments are not suitable due to inflation and currency risks
Star-Spangled Banner Recap
US Government Shutdown Ends but Economic Concerns Remain
The US government shutdown has officially ended, reducing immediate risk, but the economic impact is expected to show up in the next round of data releases. Several agencies experienced reporting delays, and the White House has already announced that the unemployment rate will not be published for now, leaving investors with less visibility on the health of the labour market. This lack of data clarity has added a cautious tone to global sentiment.
Global markets traded mixed as investors assessed the implications of delayed US data and the potential drag from the shutdown. The MSCI World Index declined by 0.94% for the week. In the US, performance was varied: the Dow rose 0.34%, the S&P 500 was nearly flat at 0.08%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.45%. Europe showed more resilience, with the CAC 40 gaining 1.42% and the FTSE 100 up 0.16%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei retreated by 1.05%, reflecting cautious positioning across the region.
Despite the week’s volatility, year-to-date performance remains broadly positive. The MSCI World is up 17.31% YTD, supported by strong gains across major markets. The Nasdaq leads US indices at 18.59% YTD, while the Nikkei has climbed 26.27%. European markets also remain firmly positive, with the FTSE 100 up 18.66% and the CAC 40 ahead by 10.69% year-to-date.
Key Takeaways:
- The end of the US shutdown brings relief, but upcoming economic data will likely reflect its negative impact.
- The White House’s decision not to publish the unemployment rate increases uncertainty for global investors.
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We hope you find this edition insightful, and as always, stay focused on your financial goals!